NFL Predictions 2026

A score, a spread and a win probability for every game

Every 2026 game with a projected score, a spread and a win probability, the book's line beside ours, and the record as the season goes. Fitted fresh on every rebuild from twelve seasons of results, this one included.

The record

Winners
1/1
100% straight up
The book's favourites
1/1
we had 1 of those 1
Margin error
6.1 pts
the book: 4.5 pts
Against the spread
—
where we differed from the book by 3+ (break-even 52.4%)

Week 2

Cards show the projected score, our line with the book's, the total and the favourite's win probability. Once a game is final the card keeps the line that was on record before kickoff and marks the call. A finished week is a click away.

Week:
Thu 17 Sep, 8:15 PM ET · Orchard Park, NYPrime Video
Lions 1-1+2.5proj 2531
Bills 2-0+5.2proj 2941
called Bills -3.9✓ rightfinal 72, O/U 54
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00 PM ET · Tampa, FLCBS
Browns 0-1-5.019
Buccaneers 0-1-0.725
Buccaneers -6.5 · book -8.5O/U 44 (41.5) · 69%
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00 PM ET · Houston, TXCBS
Bengals 1-0-1.021
Texans 0-1+3.228
Texans -6.3 · book -2.5 lean TexansO/U 49 (46.5) · 68%
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00 PM ET · Baltimore, MDCBS
Saints 0-1-2.119
Ravens 1-0+4.027
Ravens -8.2 · book -7.5O/U 46 (46.5) · 73%
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00 PM ET · East Rutherford, NJFOX
Packers 0-1+0.625
Jets 1-0-5.321
Packers -3.8 · book -3.5O/U 45 (44.5) · 61%
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00 PM ET · Chicago, ILFOX
Vikings 1-0+2.423
Bears 1-0+2.025
Bears -1.8 · book -4.5O/U 48 (48.5) · 55%
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00 PM ET · Nashville, TNFOX
Eagles 1-0+2.525
Titans 0-1-7.018
Eagles -7.4 · book -7.0O/U 43 (39.5) · 71%
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00 PM ET · Atlanta, GAFOX
Panthers 0-1-4.921
Falcons 0-1-2.226
Falcons -4.9 · book +2.5 lean FalconsO/U 47 (43.5) · 65%
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00 PM ET · Foxborough, MACBS
Steelers 1-0-0.118
Patriots 0-1+3.524
Patriots -5.7 · book -5.5O/U 42 (41.5) · 67%
Sun 20 Sep, 4:05 PM ET · Denver, COCBS
Jaguars 1-0+4.123
Broncos 0-1+0.922
Jaguars -1.1 · book +2.5 lean JaguarsO/U 45 (45.5) · 53%
Sun 20 Sep, 4:05 PM ET · Inglewood, CACBS
Raiders 1-0-5.017
Chargers 0-1-0.824
Chargers -6.4 · book -6.5O/U 41 (43.5) · 69%
Sun 20 Sep, 4:25 PM ET · Arlington, TXFOX
Commanders 0-1-2.225
Cowboys 0-1-2.527
Cowboys -1.8 · book -3.5O/U 52 (50.5) · 55%
Sun 20 Sep, 4:25 PM ET · Glendale, AZFOX
Seahawks 1-0+6.826
Cardinals 1-0-2.119
Seahawks -6.8 · book -3.5 lean SeahawksO/U 46 (40.5) · 70%
Sun 20 Sep, 4:25 PM ET · Santa Clara, CAFOX
Dolphins 0-1-3.518
49ers 1-0+3.227
49ers -8.8 · book -13.5 lean DolphinsO/U 45 (44.5) · 75%
Sun 20 Sep, 8:20 PM ET · Kansas City, MONBC
Colts 0-1-0.721
Chiefs 1-0+2.426
Chiefs -5.2 · book -6.5O/U 47 (46.5) · 66%
Mon 21 Sep, 8:15 PM ET · Inglewood, CAESPN
Giants 1-0-2.020
Rams 0-1+3.628
Rams -7.7 · book -7.0O/U 47 (48.5) · 72%

Ratings

Points better than an average team on a neutral field; Off and Def are what the model expects a team to score and allow against an average opponent.

#TeamRecordRatingOffDef
1Seahawks1-0+6.825.819.0
2Bills2-0+5.228.122.8
3Jaguars1-0+4.125.521.3
4Ravens1-0+4.026.022.0
5Rams0-1+3.625.621.9
6Patriots0-1+3.523.620.2
7Texans0-1+3.224.321.1
849ers1-0+3.224.721.6
9Lions1-1+2.526.824.3
10Eagles1-0+2.523.420.9
11Chiefs1-0+2.423.120.7
12Vikings1-0+2.423.421.0
13Bears1-0+2.025.923.9
14Broncos0-1+0.922.721.8
15Packers0-1+0.623.522.9
16Steelers1-0-0.122.222.3
17Buccaneers0-1-0.723.323.9
18Colts0-1-0.724.425.2
19Chargers0-1-0.821.522.3
20Bengals1-0-1.024.525.5
21Giants1-0-2.022.224.1
22Cardinals1-0-2.122.624.7
23Saints0-1-2.121.323.4
24Commanders0-1-2.222.724.9
25Falcons0-1-2.221.523.7
26Cowboys0-1-2.523.926.4
27Dolphins0-1-3.521.024.5
28Panthers0-1-4.921.626.5
29Browns0-1-5.019.024.0
30Raiders1-0-5.019.424.4
31Jets1-0-5.320.125.3
32Titans0-1-7.019.126.1

How it works

The same model as the college page: one strength number per team and one pace number, fitted by ridge regression to every game since 2014 so that the difference between two teams' strengths plus home field (currently 2.1 points) best explains the margins actually played, with games fading by age on a 180-day half-life. The shrinkage is sixteen times the college model's: with thirty-two teams who all play one another the evidence for any one team's strength is thinner and the parity is real, so a rating has to be earned. Margin and total are modelled separately and the two scores fall out of them; the win probability is the margin under the model's own measured error.

Track record before this page existed: tuned on 2015-2019, then scored once, walk-forward, on 2020-2025 — 1693 games: margin RMSE 13.12 (home field alone 14.22), winners 63.7%, total RMSE 13.47. For scale, the closing line runs about 13.3 and 66-67% over the same years; this is a ratings model with no injuries, no weather and no quarterback news in it, and the book knows all three. Where the two differ by a field goal or more the card says lean, and the record above keeps count of how those leans did against the number.