Thu 3 Sep, 6:00 PM ET · Piscataway, NJBTN
Rutgers -35.4book -29.5O/U 5699%
CFB Predictions
Predicted scores for this week's college football
Week 1
Every FBS game kicking off in the next seven days, 91 of them. Each card carries the score this model expects, each team's rating — points better than an average FBS side — and the book's line beside ours. The bar is the favourite's chance of winning, taken from the margin and the spread of this model's own errors: not a second model, and not a promise.
Games
91
24 with a ranked team
Closest call
0.4 pts
Wyoming at Colorado St
Biggest mismatch
55 pts
Texas Tech over Abilene Chrstn
Distance from the book
7.8 pts
average across 91 priced games
Thu 3 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Orlando, FLESPN+
Bethune11
UCF -31.2book -42.5O/U 5497%
Thu 3 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Winston-Salem, NCACC Network
Wake Forest -20.0book -24.5O/U 5189%
Thu 3 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Newark, DEESPN+
Merrimack22
Delaware -15.6book -28.5O/U 6083%
Thu 3 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Kennesaw, GAESPN+
West Georgia18
Kennesaw St -19.3book -23.5O/U 5588%
Thu 3 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Buffalo, NYESPN+
UAlbany17
Buffalo -20.6book -24.5O/U 5490%
Thu 3 Sep, 8:00 PM ET · Columbia, MOSEC Network
AR-Pine Bluff5
Missouri -43.5book -54.5O/U 54100%
Thu 3 Sep, 8:00 PM ET · Atlanta, GAESPN
Georgia Tech -12.4book -6.5O/U 5578%
Thu 3 Sep, 8:00 PM ET · Minneapolis, MNPeacock
E Illinois9
Minnesota -34.4book -43.5O/U 5398%
Thu 3 Sep, 9:00 PM ET · Salt Lake City, UTESPNU
Idaho4
Utah -49.1book -33.5O/U 58100%
Thu 3 Sep, 9:00 PM ET · Champaign, ILBTN
Illinois -25.6book -28.5O/U 5794%
Fri 4 Sep, 6:30 PM ET · Ypsilanti, MIESPN+
E Michigan -2.3book -3.5O/U 5556%
Fri 4 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · West Lafayette, INBTN
Indiana St15
Purdue -24.2book -35.5O/U 5593%
Fri 4 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Atlanta, GAESPN+
NC A&T22
Georgia St -13.3book -28.5O/U 5779%
Fri 4 Sep, 8:00 PM ET · Norman, OKSECN+
Oklahoma -38.5book -41.5O/U 4899%
Fri 4 Sep, 8:00 PM ET · Lawrence, KSESPNU
Long Island11
Kansas -34.8book -38.5O/U 5798%
Fri 4 Sep, 8:00 PM ET · East Lansing, MIFS1
Toledo -2.7book -10.0O/U 4957%
Fri 4 Sep, 9:00 PM ET · Stanford, CAESPN
Miami -20.5book +24.5O/U 5290%
Fri 4 Sep, 9:00 PM ET · Los Angeles, CAFOX
USC -18.7book -23.5O/U 5488%
Sat 5 Sep, 12:00 PM ET · Harrisonburg, VAESPNU
James Madison -25.6book -6.5O/U 5394%
Sat 5 Sep, 12:00 PM ET · Bowling Green, OHESPN+
Tarleton St15
Bowling Green -21.2book -2.5O/U 5290%
Sat 5 Sep, 12:00 PM ET · West Point, NYCBSSN
Bryant10
Army -29.9book -36.5O/U 5097%
Sat 5 Sep, 12:00 PM ET · East Hartford, CTUConn+
Lafayette15
UConn -29.8book -19.5O/U 5997%
Sat 5 Sep, 12:00 PM ET · Lincoln, NEFS1
Nebraska -10.4book -23.5O/U 5174%
Sat 5 Sep, 12:00 PM ET · Tuscaloosa, ALABC
Alabama -18.1book -28.5O/U 5287%
Sat 5 Sep, 12:00 PM ET · Morgantown, WVTNT
West Virginia -14.4book -21.5O/U 5681%
Sat 5 Sep, 12:00 PM ET · Houston, TXESPN
Houston -17.2book -20.5O/U 4886%
Sat 5 Sep, 12:00 PM ET · Bloomington, INFOX
Indiana -23.7book -40.5O/U 6393%
Sat 5 Sep, 12:00 PM ET · Syracuse, NYACC Network
New Hampshire16
Syracuse -24.5book -33.5O/U 5694%
Sat 5 Sep, 12:30 PM ET · Columbus, OHBTN
Ohio State -51.5book -50.5O/U 51100%
Sat 5 Sep, 12:30 PM ET · Pittsburgh, PACW
Pitt -14.9book -16.5O/U 5382%
Sat 5 Sep, 12:45 PM ET · Columbia, SCSEC Network
South Carolina -32.2book -36.5O/U 5198%
Sat 5 Sep, 1:00 PM ET · USAF Academy, COMW+
Duquesne16
Air Force -25.4book -30.5O/U 5794%
Sat 5 Sep, 1:00 PM ET · Ames, IAESPN+
SE Missouri7
Iowa State -39.0book -29.5O/U 5399%
Sat 5 Sep, 1:00 PM ET · Lexington, KYSECN+
Youngstown St10
Kentucky -33.9book -23.5O/U 5398%
Sat 5 Sep, 2:00 PM ET · Philadelphia, PAESPN+
Rhode Island17
Temple -23.1book -10.5O/U 5792%
Sat 5 Sep, 3:00 PM ET · Athens, GASECN+
Tennessee St1
Georgia -50.2book -46.5O/U 53100%
Sat 5 Sep, 3:30 PM ET · Charlotte, NCESPN+
The Citadel21
Charlotte -11.9book -17.5O/U 5477%
Sat 5 Sep, 3:30 PM ET · Boone, NCESPN+
Maine19
App State -18.9book -18.5O/U 5788%
Sat 5 Sep, 3:30 PM ET · Fargo, NDMW+
Fordham13
N Dakota St -27.1book -39.5O/U 5295%
Sat 5 Sep, 3:30 PM ET · San Antonio, TXESPN+
UT Rio Grande14
UTSA -32.4book -28.5O/U 6098%
Sat 5 Sep, 3:30 PM ET · Durham, NCACC Network
Duke -3.1book -9.5O/U 5658%
Sat 5 Sep, 3:30 PM ET · Annapolis, MDCBSSN
Towson11
Navy -33.4book -30.5O/U 5698%
Sat 5 Sep, 3:30 PM ET · neutral siteABC
Auburn -6.9book -7.0O/U 5567%
Sat 5 Sep, 3:30 PM ET · Knoxville, TNSECN+
Furman8
Tennessee -45.4book -46.5O/U 62100%
Sat 5 Sep, 3:30 PM ET · Cincinnati, OHFOX
Cincinnati -11.3book -7.5O/U 5676%
Sat 5 Sep, 3:30 PM ET · University Park, PAFS1
Penn State -24.4book -24.5O/U 5693%
Sat 5 Sep, 3:30 PM ET · Austin, TXESPN
Texas -22.1book -30.5O/U 5891%
Sat 5 Sep, 3:30 PM ET · Eugene, ORCBS
Oregon -21.5book -24.5O/U 5491%
Sat 5 Sep, 3:45 PM ET · Tulsa, OKESPNU
Tulsa -2.0book +14.0O/U 5255%
Sat 5 Sep, 4:15 PM ET · Fayetteville, ARSEC Network
North Alabama12
Arkansas -36.8book -40.5O/U 6199%
Sat 5 Sep, 4:15 PM ET · Iowa City, IABTN
Iowa -31.1book -31.5O/U 4397%
Sat 5 Sep, 5:00 PM ET · Hattiesburg, MSESPN+
Alcorn St20
Southern Miss -17.5book -21.0O/U 5786%
Sat 5 Sep, 6:00 PM ET · Fort Collins, COUSA Net
Colorado St -0.4book -3.0O/U 4451%
Sat 5 Sep, 6:00 PM ET · Norfolk, VAESPN+
Norfolk St10
Old Dominion -33.7book -41.5O/U 5598%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Tampa, FLESPN+
South Florida -26.6book -13.5O/U 6095%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Troy, ALESPN+
Troy -21.4book -16.5O/U 5091%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Statesboro, GAESPN+
Charleston So20
GA Southern -19.3book -25.5O/U 5988%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Jacksonville, ALESPN+
E Kentucky27
Jax State -3.6book -19.5O/U 5859%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Murfreesboro, TNESPN+
Murray St23
MTSU -10.0book -20.5O/U 5673%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Houston, TXESPN+
Hou Christian18
Rice -17.2book -22.5O/U 5486%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Mobile, ALESPN+
SE Louisiana17
South Alabama -22.7book -12.5O/U 5792%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Logan, UTCBSSN
Idaho St15
Utah State -29.6book -12.5O/U 6097%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Manhattan, KSESPN+
Nicholls10
Kansas St -37.4book -40.5O/U 5799%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Nashville, TNSECN+
Austin Peay6
Vanderbilt -46.3book -30.5O/U 59100%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Lubbock, TXFS1
Abilene Chrstn1
Texas Tech -54.6book -42.5O/U 57100%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · College Station, TXESPN
Texas A&M -32.1book -41.5O/U 5598%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:00 PM ET · Memphis, TNESPN+
Memphis -21.7book -9.5O/U 5391%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:30 PM ET · Baton Rouge, LAABC
LSU -2.5book -10.5O/U 4756%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:30 PM ET · Ann Arbor, MINBC
Michigan -21.0book -27.5O/U 4690%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:30 PM ET · Starkville, MSESPNU
Mississippi St -26.2book -28.5O/U 5495%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:30 PM ET · Blacksburg, VAACC Network
VMI12
Virginia Tech -29.7book -50.5O/U 5597%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:30 PM ET · Ruston, LAESPN+
N'Western St15
Louisiana Tech -23.4book -43.5O/U 5393%
Sat 5 Sep, 7:45 PM ET · Gainesville, FLSEC Network
Florida -20.3book -27.5O/U 5590%
Sat 5 Sep, 8:00 PM ET · Lafayette, LAESPN+
Lamar17
Louisiana -23.1book -20.5O/U 5892%
Sat 5 Sep, 8:00 PM ET · Evanston, ILBTN
S Dakota St9
Northwestern -33.5book -12.5O/U 5198%
Sat 5 Sep, 8:00 PM ET · Provo, UTESPN+
Utah Tech4
BYU -45.3book -49.5O/U 54100%
Sat 5 Sep, 8:00 PM ET · College Park, MDBTN
Hampton13
Maryland -29.3book -45.5O/U 5597%
Sat 5 Sep, 9:00 PM ET · Las Cruces, NMESPN+
Mercyhurst20
New Mexico St -14.8book -28.5O/U 5482%
Sat 5 Sep, 9:30 PM ET · Tucson, AZESPN+
N Arizona8
Arizona -39.9book -31.5O/U 5599%
Sat 5 Sep, 9:30 PM ET · San Diego, CAUSA Net
Portland St9
San Diego St -31.4book -40.5O/U 4997%
Sat 5 Sep, 10:00 PM ET · Tempe, AZESPN+
Morgan St8
Arizona St -36.9book -41.5O/U 5399%
Sat 5 Sep, 10:00 PM ET · Honolulu, HICW
UNLV -3.4book +3.0O/U 5858%
Sat 5 Sep, 10:00 PM ET · Albuquerque, NMFS1
New Mexico -9.6book -10.5O/U 5172%
Sat 5 Sep, 10:00 PM ET · Sacramento, CAESPN+
Miss Valley St19
Sacramento St -16.2book -35.5O/U 5484%
Sat 5 Sep, 10:30 PM ET · Berkeley, CAESPN
California -5.3book +1.5O/U 5163%
Sat 5 Sep, 10:30 PM ET · Reno, NVCBSSN
Western KY -0.9book +2.5O/U 5052%
Sun 6 Sep, 4:00 PM ET · Seattle, WANBC
Washington -14.6book -23.5O/U 5082%
Sun 6 Sep, 7:30 PM ET · neutral siteABC
Ole Miss -7.1book -6.5O/U 5567%
Sun 6 Sep, 7:30 PM ET · neutral siteNBC
Notre Dame -24.5book -20.5O/U 4794%
Mon 7 Sep, 7:30 PM ET · Tallahassee, FLESPN
SMU -4.2book +3.0O/U 5360%
How it has gone
Scored on the 7 games that have finished since the archive started, using the last prediction made before each kickoff. Average miss on the final margin is 12.8 points. In the Call column, ✓ means the pick got the winner right and ✗ means it did not. On these games the book missed by 13.5, so we are ahead of it by 0.7 points a game — on a sample this small that is noise, not a trend. Where the two disagreed by three points or more, this model has been right 3 times in 4.
Games scored
7
predicted before kickoff
Winners
5/7
71% right
Average miss
12.8 pts
on the final margin
The book
13.5 pts
same games, same measure
| Game | We said | It was | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis at UNLV | +0.2 | -6 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| New Mexico St at Florida St | +26.8 | +17 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| Hawai'i at Stanford | +3.3 | +10 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| Sacramento St at E Michigan | -1.4 | +11 | 12.4 | ✗ |
| Jax State at N Dakota St | +9.1 | +26 | 16.9 | ✓ |
| NC State at Virginia | +5.5 | +26 | 20.5 | ✓ |
| San José St at USC | +32.9 | +16 | 16.9 | ✓ |
How this is built, and how well it works
Every roster of results since 2014 — FBS vs FBS only; FCS opponents train the ratings but are not scored — fitted as ridge team ratings, one number per team, chosen so the gap between two of them plus home field best explains the margins actually played. Margin and total are modelled separately and the score is rebuilt from the two, because over these seasons they barely correlate. Games decay with a half-life of 180 days, so in week one the evidence is almost all last season's and by November almost all of this one's.
Tuned on 2015-2019 and then scored once on 2020-2025, predicting each week from only what had finished before it: 16.2 points of margin RMSE against 20.5 for knowing nothing but who is at home, and the winner right 72% of the time.
It does not beat the market, and it is worth saying so plainly. On the 4,238 games with a closing line it managed 16.18 against the book's 15.38 — within 0.79 of a number built from injuries, weather and everyone else's money, which is the part worth being pleased about. But on the 2,008 games where the two disagreed by three points or more, this model went 48.0% against the spread — under a coin flip, and under the 52.4% that standard juice needs. Its error grows with the size of the disagreement; the market's does not. Every point between the two columns above is this model being wrong, not the book. Read it as a description of who is strong, and not as a tip.
It is at its worst on mismatches. Past about 45 points of predicted margin it has historically said winner 53, loser 3, where the truth was nearer 51 and 8 — so the lopsided lines on this page are the ones to trust least, and a promoted team playing its first FBS season is rated on the division it just left. Between two established teams, which is most of the board, it is on much firmer ground.