Follow teams and keep your fantasy leagues on every device.

Sign inWhat you get

CFB Predictions

Every game this week, with the book's line beside ours

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

454 finished games, Aug 29 – Oct 15, each graded on the call saved before kickoff.

Winners called right
81%
370 of 454 games
the book's favorite won 83% · we're 2 pts behind
Our projected spread
50%
227 of 454 games our pick won by more than we said
50% is the target, not a bar to clear · we give favorites 0.9 pts too few
Spread leans vs the book
47%
127 of 270 leans, where we differed from the book by 3+
a coin flip is 50% · we're 3 pts behind
Over/under leans
48%
78 of 164 leans, where we differed from the book by 3+
a coin flip is 50% · we're 2 pts behind
Line moved our way
57%
167 of 291 calls where the early-week line moved by kickoff
a coin flip is 50% · we're 7 pts ahead · on average it moved 0.3 pts our way · 82 of 373 calls saw no move

How close the scores were, every total we leaned on, and every game week by week →

Weeks 7–8 How this works

Every FBS game in the next seven days, 62 of them.

Games
62
16 with a ranked team
Closest call
0.2 pts
Washington at Purdue
Biggest mismatch
55 pts
Texas A&M over The Citadel
Distance from the book
3.1 pts
average across 59 priced games

Week 755 games

Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET · Clemson, SCACC Network
Charleston So-32.58
Clemson+3.447
Clemson -38.8book -43.5O/U 5699%
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET · West Point, NYCBSSN · Preview →
FAU-8.423
Army-2.132
Army -9.2book -2.5O/U 5672%
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET · Austin, TXABC · Preview →
Florida+11.720
#7Texas+22.334
Texas -13.5book -11.5O/U 5480%
Sat, Oct 17, 1:00 PM ET · College Station, TXSECN+
The Citadel-38.63
Texas A&M+13.358
Texas A&M -54.8book -45.5O/U 62100%
Sat, Oct 17, 1:00 PM ET · Buffalo, NYESPN+ · Preview →
UMass-19.223
Buffalo-21.124
Buffalo -1.0book -7.0O/U 4853%
Sat, Oct 17, 4:30 PM ET · Houston, TXESPN+ · Preview →
Tulsa-7.825
Rice-13.522
Tulsa -2.8book -4.5O/U 4857%
Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET · Waco, TXFS1 · Preview →
TCU+7.323
Baylor+8.827
Baylor -4.4book -5.5O/U 5061%
Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET · Stanford, CAACCNX
Elon-38.714
Stanford-11.844
Stanford -29.7book -35.5O/U 5997%
Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET · Provo, UTABC · Preview →
#2Notre Dame+27.831
#8BYU+14.921
Notre Dame -10.1book -10.5O/U 5374%
Sat, Oct 17, 8:00 PM ET · San Antonio, TXESPNU · Preview →
Navy-3.425
UTSA-1.330
UTSA -4.9book -6.5O/U 5562%
Sat, Oct 17, 10:15 PM ET · Boulder, COESPN · Preview →
#11Utah+21.636
Colorado-0.916
Utah -19.6book -14.5O/U 5289%

Week 87 games

Tue, Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET · Miami, FLCBSSN · Preview →
MTSU-19.517
FIU-10.628
FIU -11.8book -10.0O/U 4577%
Tue, Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET · Newark, DEESPNU
Missouri St-16.425
Delaware-14.729
Delaware -4.6O/U 5461%

Every Game, Called

All 454 games scored since the archive started, newest week first, using the last prediction on record before each kickoff. Three calls per game, each a plain yes or no, and the three records at the top of the page are these columns added up: Winner is whether the pick got the winner right; Spread whether our side of the book's number covered, and Lean under Total whether our side of the book's total came in, each only where our number differed from the book's by three points or more (a lean). Our O/U shows which side we leaned, however slightly. A dash means no lean: the book posted no line, or our number was within three points of theirs. Leans are a second opinion, not tips; over ten seasons they have won about half the time.

Week 77 games57% winners (4/7)11.7 pt miss0% ATS (0/1)0% O/U (0/1)
GameMarginTotal
OursIt WasMissWinnerSpreadOursIt WasOur O/ULean
Colorado St at Texas St27–66+15.0+3924.0✓—6993U 69.5—
East Carolina at UAB17–30-10.6+1323.6✗✗5147O 49.5—
GA Southern at Old Dominion23–15-1.9-86.1✓—4938O 45.5✗
Western KY at Sam Houston16–3-0.8-1312.2✓—5319U 53.5—
Kennesaw St at Missouri St21–24-4.9+37.9✗—5045U 52.5—
FIU at Jax State24–27+5.4+32.4✓—4651O 43.5—
Delaware at MTSU30–33-2.6+35.6✗—5163O 48.5—
Week 658 games67% winners (39/58)11.8 pt miss55% ATS (17/31)38% O/U (9/24)
GameMarginTotal
OursIt WasMissWinnerSpreadOursIt WasOur O/ULean
Hawai'i at Arizona St12–30+21.9+183.9✓—5142U 51.5—
Boise St at Fresno St38–31-8.3-71.3✓—5069O 48.5—
James Madison at GA Southern27–24-16.6-313.6✓✗5651O 51.5✗
Minnesota at Purdue13–41-4.2+2832.2✗—5354O 49.5✓
Kansas at Utah24–41+13.3+173.7✓—5565O 49.5✓
Georgia at Alabama20–17+6.6-39.6✗✗6037O 51.5✗
USC at Penn State31–23+2.1-810.1✗✗5754O 54.5—
Air Force at N Illinois28–7-5.1-2115.9✓—4835U 48.5—
Louisiana at Louisiana Tech31–32+5.8+14.8✓—5463O 48.5✓
Syracuse at Virginia25–28+9.9+36.9✓✓5253O 49.5—
Nevada at UTEP30–13-4.8-1712.2✓✗5343O 48.5✗
UAB at Memphis13–38+20.7+254.3✓✓5751O 54.5—
LSU at Kentucky34–35-5.0+16.0✗✓5169O 50.5—
N Dakota St at UNLV7–13-0.2+66.2✗—5020O 47.5—
Coastal at Marshall27–21+2.6-68.6✗—5548U 57.5—
San Diego St at Oregon St14–66+9.9+5242.1✓✗4880U 52.5✗
Maryland at Ohio State16–45+32.3+293.3✓—5361U 56.5✗
Tennessee at Arkansas24–17-11.5-74.5✓—5741O 51.5✗
UConn at Temple34–20-2.4-1411.6✓✓5854O 55.5—
Kent State at W Michigan7–38+17.8+3113.2✓✓4645O 43.5—
Texas vs Oklahoma24–27-6.4+39.4✗—4051U 41.5—
E Michigan at Akron25–23-0.4-21.6✓✓5148U 51.5—
C Michigan at Ohio14–31+9.3+177.7✓✓4745O 45.5—
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt52–17-2.9-3532.1✓✗5869O 54.5✓
Virginia Tech at California20–25-6.9+511.9✗✓5445O 53.5—
Houston at Kansas St35–16-0.6-1918.4✓✓5751O 54.5—
Stanford at Notre Dame7–58+40.7+5110.3✓—5765O 55.5—
Tulsa at Navy26–34+3.9+84.1✓—4960O 47.5—
UCLA at Oregon17–15+10.2-212.2✗—6032O 57.5—
Buffalo at Toledo23–8+27.8-1542.8✗✗5631O 55.5—
Illinois at Michigan St38–37-2.1-11.1✓—4975O 48.5—
Charlotte at North Texas10–50+32.3+407.7✓✓6660O 57.5✓
Duke at Georgia Tech25–28-4.1+37.1✗—5553O 45.5✓
Miami OH at UMass20–19-6.4-15.4✓—4939O 44.5✗
Rice at East Carolina12–28+13.9+162.1✓✓4840O 45.5—
Old Dominion at App State10–3+5.3-712.3✗✓5313O 45.5✗
South Carolina at Florida38–19+5.7-1924.7✗✓5957U 59.5—
Ball State at Northwestern14–45+38.3+317.3✓✗5259U 53.5—
Texas A&M at Missouri6–27+1.2+2119.8✓✗5333O 50.5—
Arizona at West Virginia52–31-9.1-2111.9✓✓5783U 61.5✗
Tulane at Army17–20+3.3+30.3✓—4437U 48.5✓
Wake Forest at NC State38–14-3.0-2421.0✓—5852O 56.5—
Sacramento St at Bowling Green10–38+6.8+2821.2✓—4748O 43.5✓
North Carolina at Pitt21–17+13.1-417.1✗✗4938O 47.5—
UCF at Oklahoma St28–42-1.6+1415.6✗✗4970U 53.5✗
Indiana at Nebraska20–17-11.0-38.0✓—5437O 48.5✗
Iowa State at BYU10–24+10.1+143.9✓—5134O 46.5✗
Washington St at Utah State16–17+2.1+11.1✓—4533O 43.5—
Iowa at Washington41–24-5.0-1712.0✓✓4365O 41.5—
Wyoming at San José St16–13+6.4-39.4✗—4129U 42.5—
Florida St at Louisville20–44+3.1+2420.9✓—5664U 60.5✗
South Florida at UTSA24–31+0.0+77.0✗✗5655O 49.5✓
South Alabama at Arkansas St56–49+2.5-79.5✗—56105U 59.5✗
Missouri St at Western KY13–34+3.4+2117.6✓✓5647U 56.5—
Sam Houston at Liberty3–35+12.0+3220.0✓—5138U 52.5—
New Mexico St at FIU3–22+2.2+1916.8✓✗4625O 45.5—
Jax State at Kennesaw St27–26+1.9-12.9✗✓4953O 48.5—
Southern Miss at Troy34–55+3.9+2117.1✓✗4989U 52.5✗
Week 559 games75% winners (44/59)13.7 pt miss48% ATS (11/23)56% O/U (10/18)
GameMarginTotal
OursIt WasMissWinnerSpreadOursIt WasOur O/ULean
San José St at Hawai'i20–16+3.3-47.3✗—5136U 51.5—
Cincinnati at Arizona7–34+6.4+2720.6✓—5641O 55.5—
Baylor at Arizona St55–19+4.6-3640.6✗—5374O 49.5✓
Texas St at San Diego St29–31-4.2+26.2✗✓5660U 57.5—
Fresno St at Washington St26–6+5.9-2025.9✗✗4532O 44.5—
Indiana at Rutgers47–15-26.2-325.8✓—5662U 57.5—
Arkansas St at Louisiana20–23+6.2+33.2✓—5043O 49.5—
McNeese at LSU14–63+56.6+497.6✓✗5777U 62.5✗
Utah State at Boise St18–37+16.7+192.3✓—5155U 51.5—
Texas Tech at Colorado29–7-16.5-225.5✓—5236O 49.5—
Washington at USC21–25+10.2+46.2✓—5646U 58.5—
Miami at Clemson41–13-16.3-2811.7✓—5154O 49.5—
Temple at South Florida17–13+14.6-418.6✗✗5730O 50.5✗
Army at Louisiana Tech29–31+0.2+21.8✓—5060O 47.5—
Arkansas at Texas A&M7–34+16.3+2710.7✓—5641O 50.5✗
BYU at TCU17–10-5.2-71.8✓—5127O 48.5—
UTSA at Rice16–14-10.3-28.3✓—5630U 56.5—
UL Monroe at South Alabama35–52+16.8+170.2✓✓5787U 57.5—
GA Southern at Coastal31–24-4.1-72.9✓—5355U 53.5—
Oregon St at Colorado St56–26-7.1-3022.9✓—5882U 61.5✗
Texas Southern at FAU10–66+38.2+5617.8✓✗6476O 62.5—
Kentucky at South Carolina35–34+2.0-13.0✗—5269U 52.5—
Purdue at Illinois24–17+17.2-724.2✗✗5941U 61.5—
Maryland at Nebraska23–48+15.3+259.7✓—5371O 52.5—
UTEP at New Mexico7–61+24.3+5429.7✓—5568O 47.5✓
Florida at Missouri17–45-2.3+2830.3✗✓5762U 57.5—
Marshall at James Madison17–45+29.5+281.5✓✓5762O 55.5—
Samford at UAB14–33+27.2+198.2✓✓5847O 54.5✗
California at UNLV31–39+6.1+81.9✓✓5170U 52.5—
Auburn at Tennessee14–24+6.4+103.6✓—5538O 53.5—
Louisville at NC State28–31-1.4+34.4✗✓6259O 57.5✓
E Michigan at UMass38–14+4.8-2428.8✗—4952O 48.5—
Wyoming at N Dakota St0–28+17.8+2810.2✓—4028U 44.5✓
Akron at C Michigan17–41+2.2+2421.8✓✗4658U 46.5—
Ohio at Kent State13–10-14.0-311.0✓✗5523O 50.5✗
Bowling Green at Miami OH24–20+18.1-422.1✗✗4644O 41.5✓
Old Dominion at Georgia St10–42+0.0+3232.0✓—5552O 51.5✓
Ohio State at Iowa31–14-6.2-1710.8✓✗4545U 46.5—
Virginia at Florida St7–38-0.9+3131.9✗—5145U 51.5—
Toledo at Ball State39–24-22.7-157.7✓—5563O 52.5—
W Michigan at Buffalo20–17-12.4-39.4✓—4837O 45.5—
Vanderbilt at Georgia14–38+21.3+242.7✓✓5652O 50.5✓
Michigan St at Wisconsin3–31+6.7+2821.3✓—4434O 43.5—
Michigan at Minnesota14–20-4.9+610.9✗—4634O 41.5✗
Boston College at SMU16–25+18.4+99.4✓✓5241U 55.5✓
UCF at Houston17–27+7.8+102.2✓—5344O 50.5—
Stanford at Wake Forest3–57+16.1+5437.9✓—5360U 54.5—
Navy at Air Force9–14+1.8+53.2✓—5523O 45.5✗
Notre Dame at North Carolina37–26-20.7-119.7✓—4863O 46.5—
Syracuse at UConn42–41+5.6-16.6✗✓5683O 51.5✓
Alabama at Mississippi St56–23-7.2-3325.8✓—6279U 62.5—
West Virginia at Iowa State42–45+12.0+39.0✓—5387U 53.5—
MTSU at Kansas0–55+22.6+5532.4✓—5155U 51.5—
Memphis at Charlotte59–8-18.5-5132.5✓—5667O 52.5✓
Penn State at Northwestern13–34-6.3+2127.3✗✗4747O 46.5—
Pitt at Virginia Tech35–33-4.2-22.2✓✓5468U 54.5—
Liberty at Delaware30–14-3.0-1613.0✓✗5344O 51.5—
North Texas at Tulsa45–44-10.4-19.4✓✗5989O 56.5—
Western KY at New Mexico St13–34+1.4+2119.6✓—5647O 55.5—
Week 471 games80% winners (57/71)12.8 pt miss52% ATS (22/42)52% O/U (15/29)
GameMarginTotal
OursIt WasMissWinnerSpreadOursIt WasOur O/ULean
Minnesota at Washington27–24+8.3-311.3✗—4751O 46.5—
Georgia Tech at Stanford27–34-6.6+713.6✗✗5261O 48.5✓
Air Force at Nevada36–33-5.4-32.4✓—4969U 50.5—
Rice at Fresno St24–38+17.9+143.9✓✓4462O 43.5—
Missouri St at SMU24–34+27.6+1017.6✓✓5658U 60.5✓
Oregon St at UTEP33–7-5.6-2620.4✓✗5640U 56.5—
UMass at Sacramento St35–6+8.2-2937.2✗✗4941U 49.5—
FAU at UL Monroe45–17-9.0-2819.0✓—5962O 58.5—
Tulsa at Arkansas6–34+10.3+2817.7✓✓5340O 50.5—
Missouri at Mississippi St24–31+4.3+72.7✓—5955O 58.5—
App State at NC State31–41+17.2+107.2✓✗5772O 55.5—
Troy at Utah State10–21+3.7+117.3✓—4831O 47.5—
Hou Christian at North Texas14–63+43.8+495.2✓✓6777O 60.5✓
Texas A&M at LSU6–35+1.6+2927.4✓✗5341O 52.5—
Oregon at USC41–27-2.7-1411.3✓—6468O 60.5✓
Arizona at Washington St34–24-2.6-107.4✓✓4658U 48.5—
Kennesaw St at Arkansas St14–17+1.7+31.3✓✓5031U 53.5✓
Kansas St at Cincinnati26–31-3.8+58.8✗—5857O 55.5—
South Carolina at Alabama18–49+18.0+3113.0✓✓5467O 53.5—
Southern Miss at Tulane21–24+20.2+317.2✓—5045U 52.5—
Oklahoma St at West Virginia41–24+7.2-1724.2✗✗5465U 60.5✗
Mercyhurst at Western KY7–52+25.9+4519.1✓✗6059O 58.5—
MTSU at Jax State13–23+12.4+102.4✓✓5436O 51.5—
Louisiana at Charlotte34–7-8.4-2718.6✓—5441O 49.5✗
C Michigan at Miami3–52+43.5+495.5✓—4855U 52.5✗
James Madison at Old Dominion46–20-12.6-2613.4✓✓5166O 43.5✓
Incarnate Word at Texas St10–63+33.6+5319.4✓✓6573U 66.5—
Delaware at Virginia3–42+19.3+3919.7✓—5445O 52.5—
Long Island at FIU3–20+30.4+1713.4✓✓5323U 54.5—
Nebraska at Michigan St31–13-1.2-1816.8✓✗5044O 49.5—
South Florida at Bowling Green14–6-27.2-819.2✓✗5420O 48.5✗
Wisconsin at Penn State24–20+19.5-423.5✗✗4644O 43.5—
Vanderbilt at Auburn15–21+3.8+62.2✓✓5336U 55.5—
NC Central at East Carolina9–42+37.5+334.5✓—5751U 57.5—
Houston at GA Southern42–28-14.1-140.1✓✓5270U 56.5✗
Stonehill at Ohio7–35+30.1+282.1✓—6042O 53.5✗
Gardner-Webb at Marshall35–36+29.8+128.8✓✗5971O 55.5✓
Utah at Iowa State31–17-6.7-147.3✓—5148O 47.5✓
Iowa at Michigan20–19+1.2-12.2✗✓4239O 38.5✓
Oklahoma at Georgia13–41+11.8+2816.2✓—4554O 43.5—
TCU at UCF13–21+1.8+86.2✓✓5134O 48.5—
William & Mary at Duke7–62+46.4+558.6✓—5769U 62.5✗
Boise St at W Michigan32–7-3.9-2521.1✓✗5039U 50.5—
UConn at Miami OH21–24-4.0+37.0✗—5745O 51.5✗
New Mexico at New Mexico St42–18-11.7-2412.3✓—5260O 47.5✓
Robert Morris at Buffalo28–31+19.7+316.7✓✓5759O 46.5✓
Ole Miss at Florida28–52-1.1+2425.1✗✗5880U 58.5—
C Arkansas at Florida St7–34+45.1+2718.1✓—5941U 62.5✓
Hawai'i at Wyoming10–27-5.0+1722.0✗—4237U 43.5—
Notre Dame at Purdue49–10-31.0-398.0✓✓5959O 57.5—
N Illinois at Georgia St14–35+13.6+217.4✓✓5349U 56.5✓
UCLA at Maryland54–3+4.7-5155.7✗✗5557U 55.5—
Lindenwood at E Michigan3–29+17.3+268.7✓✗5832O 53.5✗
South Alabama at Kentucky21–45+14.8+249.2✓✗5466U 54.5—
Sam Houston at Texas Tech14–49+31.8+353.2✓—5263U 56.5✗
San Diego St at Toledo16–41+8.1+2516.9✓✓4957U 50.5—
Texas at Tennessee20–17-1.6-31.4✓✓5637O 54.5—
Illinois at Ohio State19–42+25.6+232.6✓—5161U 53.5—
Wake Forest at Louisville30–27+13.2-316.2✗—5857O 57.5—
Colorado at Baylor13–23+13.0+103.0✓✓5336U 54.5—
Virginia Tech at Boston College21–14-11.0-74.0✓✓5435O 46.5✗
Colorado St at UTSA45–59+14.2+140.2✓—58104O 56.5—
Bucknell at Pitt0–59+48.3+5910.7✓✗5759U 63.5✓
Ball State at Kent State13–26+0.9+1312.1✓—5639O 50.5✗
UNLV at Akron38–10-11.5-2816.5✓—5248U 52.5—
Clemson at California24–10-2.8-1411.2✓—5134U 52.5—
Northwestern at Indiana23–29+30.2+624.2✓✗4752U 49.5—
Navy at UAB20–24-7.8+411.8✗—5644O 50.5✗
Howard at Rutgers7–58+31.2+5119.8✓✗6165O 57.5✓
Army at Temple21–17-4.6-40.6✓—5238O 48.5✗
Liberty at Coastal34–17+1.0-1718.0✗✗5251O 49.5—
Week 375 games87% winners (65/75)10.9 pt miss55% ATS (26/47)44% O/U (12/27)
GameMarginTotal
OursIt WasMissWinnerSpreadOursIt WasOur O/ULean
Purdue at UCLA38–52+16.1+142.1✓—5490O 52.5—
Montana at Oregon St17–52+29.1+355.9✓✓5669O 55.5—
Fresno St at San José St26–10-8.4-167.6✓—5036O 48.5—
N Illinois at Arizona17–42+30.5+255.5✓—4559U 50.5✗
N Dakota St at Sacramento St31–10-19.1-211.9✓✓4941U 50.5—
James Madison at San Diego St26–13-13.2-130.2✓✓5039O 46.5✗
South Dakota at Boise St24–38+45.6+1431.6✓✗5962U 60.5—
UAB at Louisiana14–21+12.1+75.1✓—5935O 55.5✗
UTSA at Texas6–30+26.7+242.7✓—5536U 58.5✓
Arkansas St at TCU7–31+20.4+243.6✓—5438U 56.5—
East Texas A&M at Tulsa0–42+26.1+4215.9✓✗5542U 56.5—
Kennesaw St at Tennessee9–42+27.2+335.8✓✓5851U 60.5—
New Mexico at Oklahoma6–14+17.9+89.9✓✓4920O 45.5✗
Colorado at Northwestern7–41+1.8+3432.2✓—4848O 47.5—
Michigan St at Notre Dame10–27+31.3+1714.3✓—5537O 51.5✗
LSU at Ole Miss24–32+4.1+83.9✓✓5356U 58.5✓
BYU at Colorado St41–23-21.3-183.3✓✓5464O 52.5—
West Virginia vs Virginia38–27+13.1-1124.1✗—5265U 53.5—
Virginia Tech at Maryland35–26+2.7-911.7✗✗5561O 53.5—
E Washington at Washington16–48+45.9+3213.9✓✗5364U 58.5✗
North Dakota at Nebraska7–34+46.8+2719.8✓✗5941O 55.5✗
Florida at Auburn44–39+2.1-57.1✗✗4883U 52.5✗
Ohio at South Alabama36–41+4.0+51.0✓✓5577O 48.5✓
Delaware St at South Florida17–59+45.5+423.5✓✓6076U 61.5—
Nicholls at Sam Houston0–59+18.9+5940.1✓—5659O 50.5✓
GA Southern at Jax State27–31+6.9+42.9✓✓5258U 52.5—
Nevada at MTSU20–27+3.1+73.9✓✓4847U 50.5—
UConn at Southern Miss48–20-2.8-2825.2✓—5768O 54.5—
W Michigan at Rice28–21-7.6-70.6✓—4449O 43.5—
Murray St at Oklahoma St0–59+30.0+5929.0✓✗5659U 70.5✓
Georgia St at UCF30–44+20.6+146.6✓✗5374O 50.5—
Troy at Missouri17–27+27.4+1017.4✓—5044O 49.5—
UT Martin at Memphis21–45+40.2+2416.2✓✗6066O 57.5—
Marshall at Missouri St30–24+1.1-67.1✗✗5554O 52.5—
Charlotte at App State21–26+21.1+516.1✓✗5547O 52.5—
FIU at FAU10–16-1.4+67.4✗✗6026U 62.5—
East Carolina at Old Dominion20–17+3.3-36.3✗—5237O 48.5✗
SE Louisiana at UL Monroe38–35+16.2-319.2✗✗5673O 48.5✓
Mississippi St at South Carolina41–34+3.2-710.2✗—5475U 58.5✗
Stanford at Duke7–35+18.1+289.9✓✓5442O 51.5—
Ball State at Liberty15–51+15.1+3620.9✓—5066O 49.5—
Western KY at Indiana0–38+45.1+387.1✓—5838U 60.5—
Northern Iowa at Iowa0–55+50.8+554.2✓✓5155O 49.5—
Louisiana Tech at Baylor19–36+8.4+178.6✓✓5655O 50.5✓
Kentucky at Texas A&M31–21+26.6-1036.6✗✗5452O 49.5✓
USC at Rutgers42–35-18.2-711.2✓✓6077O 58.5—
Miami OH at Cincinnati31–35+20.4+416.4✓✗5466O 49.5✓
Stonehill at UMass14–36+14.3+227.7✓✓5750O 50.5✗
UTEP at Michigan17–52+30.8+354.2✓✗4769U 48.5—
Utah State at Utah0–33+30.5+332.5✓✓5733O 56.5—
Florida St at Alabama36–50+19.7+145.7✓—5286O 49.5—
Wagner at California7–49+34.6+427.4✓✓5756U 65.5✓
Duquesne at Washington St7–48+37.6+413.4✓—5255O 51.5—
SMU at Louisville31–41+2.0+108.0✓—5772U 58.5—
Temple at Toledo48–49+15.6+114.6✓✗5197O 48.5—
Maine at Boston College16–22+33.6+627.6✓✓5838O 54.5✗
S Illinois at Illinois10–48+42.1+384.1✓✓5858O 55.5—
Wyoming at C Michigan10–24+3.4+1410.6✓✓3834U 39.5—
NC State at Vanderbilt31–35+5.6+41.6✓—5766O 50.5✓
E Michigan at Wisconsin10–54+20.6+4423.4✓—4464U 44.5—
Tulane at Kansas St20–31+13.9+112.9✓✓5151O 49.5—
Buffalo at Penn State13–55+37.8+424.2✓—4868U 48.5—
Mercer at Georgia Tech11–44+41.1+338.1✓—5855O 57.5—
Bowling Green at Iowa State7–55+31.4+4816.6✓✓4462O 43.5—
Kent State at Ohio State3–59+56.3+560.3✓✓5662U 58.5—
Georgia at Arkansas45–17-17.3-2810.7✓✗5762O 54.5—
Akron at Minnesota7–41+19.9+3414.1✓—5048O 48.5—
North Carolina at Clemson20–28+10.0+82.0✓✓4448U 44.5—
Arizona St vs Kansas24–17-4.6-72.4✓—5541O 50.5✗
North Texas at Texas St35–49-12.6+1426.6✗✗6784O 62.5✓
Coastal at Delaware14–22+6.1+81.9✓—5836O 56.5—
Portland St at Oregon0–84+52.7+8431.3✓✗6084U 71.5✗
Houston at Texas Tech26–28+13.0+211.0✓✗5454O 52.5—
Miami at Wake Forest33–20-19.8-136.8✓—5553U 55.5—
Syracuse at Pitt13–27+18.0+144.0✓✓5540O 51.5✗
Week 286 games86% winners (74/86)13.7 pt miss38% ATS (21/55)49% O/U (17/35)
GameMarginTotal
OursIt WasMissWinnerSpreadOursIt WasOur O/ULean
New Mexico St at Hawai'i19–29+6.4+103.6✓—5148O 50.5—
Louisiana at USC30–49+27.7+198.7✓—5679U 58.5—
Sacramento St at Fresno St3–49+2.8+4643.2✓✗4752O 43.5✓
Montana St at Nevada20–7+29.8-1342.8✗✗5627O 51.5✗
Arkansas at Utah10–43+19.0+3314.0✓✓6053O 55.5✗
N Dakota St at Air Force38–32-9.6-63.6✓✓4670U 47.5—
Cal Poly at San José St20–30+26.4+1016.4✓✗5950O 58.5—
Texas Southern at UTEP10–51+17.8+4123.2✓✗5761O 53.5✓
Prairie View at Baylor3–44+39.8+411.2✓—5947O 55.5✗
Grambling at TCU7–63+42.0+5614.0✓—5670O 55.5—
Charlotte at Ole Miss9–41+46.3+3214.3✓—5950U 59.5—
Southern Miss at Auburn8–43+20.4+3514.6✓✗4951U 56.5✓
Ohio State at Texas23–24-2.6+13.6✗✓4847U 50.5—
Louisiana Tech at LSU14–45+17.2+3113.8✓✓5059U 55.5✗
Fordham at Coastal7–45+24.7+3813.3✓✗5952O 53.5✗
GA Southern at Clemson7–22+19.1+154.1✓—5429U 54.5—
Iowa State at Iowa13–16+13.5+310.5✓—4529O 42.5—
Texas Tech at Oregon St35–24-25.2-1114.2✓—5159U 52.5—
Navy at FAU30–38-9.3+817.3✗✗6168O 59.5—
San Diego St at UCLA10–28+6.7+1811.3✓✗4938U 54.5✓
W Illinois at Wisconsin9–36+37.7+2710.7✓✓4945U 51.5—
South Alabama at Tulane24–28+17.4+413.4✓✗5052O 48.5—
Bowling Green at Nebraska7–56+28.9+4920.1✓—4863U 49.5—
Southern Utah at Colorado St24–58+25.5+348.5✓✓5682U 57.5—
Georgia St at Kennesaw St31–17+13.1-1427.1✗✗5448U 55.5—
West Georgia at Arkansas St7–52+25.3+4519.7✓✗5759O 56.5—
Illinois St at N Illinois28–24+21.4-425.4✗✗5152O 47.5✓
Tulsa at Sam Houston23–17-1.9-64.1✓✓5140U 51.5—
Tennessee at Georgia Tech45–24-3.9-2117.1✓✗5869O 55.5—
MTSU at Marshall26–28+12.9+210.9✓—5454U 55.5—
W Carolina at Cincinnati10–62+42.4+529.6✓✓5772U 61.5✗
Towson at South Carolina9–45+48.9+3612.9✓✗5454U 57.5✓
Southern at Houston6–77+38.5+7132.5✓✗5583U 61.5✗
Lindenwood at Missouri St14–48+24.3+349.7✓✓5662O 52.5✓
Monmouth at W Michigan14–49+33.5+351.5✓✓5163U 54.5✗
Jax State at Ohio27–29+2.8+20.8✓—5456O 49.5✓
Buffalo at FIU20–33+14.4+131.4✓✓4853O 47.5—
Memphis at Boise St20–38+6.1+1811.9✓—5758O 54.5—
Campbell at Florida3–52+48.0+491.0✓—5755U 65.5✓
Delaware at Vanderbilt26–35+22.7+913.7✓—5761O 54.5—
Mercyhurst at New Mexico7–70+36.9+6326.1✓✗5777O 53.5✓
Alabama St at Troy17–34+27.2+1710.2✓✗5451O 51.5—
N Colorado at Wyoming13–21+23.3+815.3✓—5034O 44.5✗
UC Davis at SMU10–56+50.3+464.3✓✓5766U 58.5—
UNLV at North Texas6–44+7.4+3830.6✓✓6450O 57.5✗
Maryland at UConn38–14+3.2-2427.2✗✗5752O 52.5✗
E Michigan at Michigan St7–35+18.2+289.8✓—5242O 49.5—
California at Syracuse21–18+7.4-310.4✗✗5639U 56.5—
Alabama at Kentucky45–17-16.6-2811.4✓✓5062O 48.5—
Weber St at Colorado21–52+36.5+315.5✓—5573U 57.5—
UCF at Pitt7–12+11.0+56.0✓✗5819O 55.5—
Arizona at BYU17–28+12.0+111.0✓✓5145O 48.5—
UL Monroe at UAB20–26+13.2+67.2✓✗5846O 54.5✗
UTSA at Texas St31–26-1.9-53.1✓✓6557U 65.5—
Duke at Illinois31–27+1.8-45.8✗✓5458O 51.5—
Utah State at Washington14–16+25.7+223.7✓—5430U 55.5—
Mississippi St at Minnesota38–13+0.5-2525.5✗—5651O 54.5—
C Connecticut at Toledo10–63+37.6+5315.4✓—5373U 53.5—
Robert Morris at Akron10–45+18.5+3516.5✓✗5655O 46.5✓
Rice at Notre Dame0–52+46.8+525.2✓—5252U 54.5—
Sacred Heart at UMass10–37+11.9+2715.1✓✗5747O 53.5✗
Stony Brook at Ball State17–41+15.1+248.9✓—5758O 53.5✓
Holy Cross at Miami OH7–45+26.9+3811.1✓✗5652O 47.5✓
UT Martin at West Virginia7–52+31.8+4513.2✓✗5759O 56.5—
Colgate at C Michigan10–13+23.0+320.0✓✗5423O 49.5✗
Western KY at Georgia20–70+32.1+5017.9✓✗5290U 55.5✗
Gardner-Webb at Liberty23–24+31.6+130.6✓✗5647O 55.5—
Arizona St at Texas A&M20–48+16.0+2812.0✓—5468O 51.5—
Oregon at Oklahoma St31–39-32.0+840.0✗✗5170U 54.5✗
ETSU at North Carolina3–35+35.6+323.6✓—5238U 54.5—
Oklahoma at Michigan10–17-3.3+710.3✗—4327U 43.5—
Wagner at James Madison3–87+45.2+8438.8✓—5590U 56.5—
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech21–44+8.7+2314.3✓✗5265O 47.5✓
Washington St at Kansas St7–34+11.1+2715.9✓✗5141O 48.5—
Wake Forest at Purdue38–36-7.8-25.8✓✗5274O 51.5—
South Florida at Army28–24-4.2-40.2✓✓5152O 45.5✓
App State at East Carolina27–24+12.2-315.2✗✗5551U 55.5—
Wofford at Kent State15–36+10.4+2110.6✓—5951O 45.5✓
Howard at Indiana0–55+67.4+5512.4✓✗6755O 66.5—
Penn State at Temple27–9-24.6-186.6✓—5336O 50.5—
Missouri at Kansas38–21-3.6-1713.4✓—5459O 51.5—
Rutgers at Boston College21–28+6.6+70.4✓✓5749O 53.5✗
Villanova at Louisville13–59+47.9+461.9✓✓5872O 57.5—
Norfolk St at Virginia3–59+45.2+5610.8✓—5562U 55.5—
Richmond at NC State0–73+37.7+7335.3✓✓5873O 50.5✓
Florida A&M at Miami7–77+59.7+7010.3✓—6084U 66.5✗
Week 198 games89% winners (87/98)16.3 pt miss42% ATS (30/71)50% O/U (15/30)
GameMarginTotal
OursIt WasMissWinnerSpreadOursIt WasOur O/ULean
SMU at Florida St27–24-2.4-30.6✓—5351U 54.5—
Wisconsin vs Notre Dame13–41+25.2+282.8✓✓4754O 45.5—
Louisville vs Ole Miss38–41+8.9+35.9✓—5479U 55.5—
Washington St at Washington10–24+14.0+140.0✓✓4934U 51.5—
Western KY at Nevada14–49-5.5+3540.5✗✗5063U 51.5—
UCLA at California45–24+5.2-2126.2✗✗5169U 53.5—
C Michigan at New Mexico7–38+11.4+3119.6✓—5145O 47.5✗
UNLV at Hawai'i21–6-3.9-1511.1✓—5827O 55.5—
Morgan St at Arizona St7–70+40.6+6322.4✓—5477O 52.5—
Miss Valley St at Sacramento St0–52+17.7+5234.3✓✗5552U 56.5—
Portland St at San Diego St20–53+34.4+331.4✓✓5073U 62.5✗
N Arizona at Arizona7–35+43.8+2815.8✓✗5642U 58.5—
Mercyhurst at New Mexico St14–51+21.2+3715.8✓✗5565O 52.5—
Hampton at Maryland0–62+32.3+6229.7✓✗5662U 56.5—
Utah Tech at BYU7–63+49.2+566.8✓—5570U 61.5✗
S Dakota St at Northwestern18–34+37.1+1621.1✓✓5252O 49.5—
Lamar at Louisiana7–38+27.0+314.0✓✓5845O 48.5✗
FAU at Florida21–66+20.4+4524.6✓✗5487U 59.5✗
W Michigan at Michigan12–13+23.5+122.5✓✓4625U 49.5✓
Clemson at LSU10–51+2.6+4138.4✓✗4761U 49.5—
UL Monroe at Mississippi St13–62+25.6+4923.4✓—5475U 54.5—
VMI at Virginia Tech3–73+34.3+7035.7✓✗5576U 59.5✗
N'Western St at Louisiana Tech6–80+30.4+7443.6✓✗5486U 56.5—
Sam Houston at Troy21–24+17.3+314.3✓—5045U 52.5—
Nicholls at Kansas St3–71+41.7+6826.3✓—5874O 54.5✓
Arkansas St at Memphis24–42+20.7+182.7✓✓5366O 52.5—
Missouri St at Texas A&M0–50+29.3+5020.7✓✗5550O 53.5—
Abilene Chrstn at Texas Tech10–33+58.4+2335.4✓✗5843U 60.5—
Austin Peay at Vanderbilt9–28+51.0+1932.0✓✗6037O 58.5—
Idaho St at Utah State29–17+33.0-1245.0✗✗6146O 59.5—
Hou Christian at Rice3–31+21.1+286.9✓—5434O 47.5✗
FIU at South Florida9–19+21.7+1011.7✓✗6028O 53.5✗
E Kentucky at Jax State7–49+29.3+4212.7✓✓5756O 52.5✓
Charleston So at GA Southern0–31+24.9+316.1✓✗6031O 51.5✗
SE Louisiana at South Alabama14–39+26.9+251.9✓✓5853O 53.5✗
Murray St at MTSU14–38+18.1+245.9✓✗5752O 55.5—
Wyoming at Colorado St13–35+0.2+2221.8✓—4448U 46.5—
Norfolk St at Old Dominion10–31+38.7+2117.7✓—5641O 52.5✗
Alcorn St at Southern Miss3–49+22.9+4623.1✓✓5852O 50.5✓
North Alabama at Arkansas14–31+40.2+1723.2✓—6245U 63.5—
N Illinois at Iowa0–40+31.3+408.7✓—4340U 44.5—
Oklahoma St at Tulsa10–24+0.8+1413.2✓✓5234U 57.5✓
Baylor vs Auburn16–17+6.0+15.0✓—5533U 57.5—
Tulane at Duke3–17+2.3+1411.7✓✗5620O 50.5✗
Furman at Tennessee9–56+49.0+472.0✓—6365U 66.5✓
Marshall at Penn State0–45+22.3+4522.7✓—5545O 52.5—
Texas St at Texas7–59+21.8+5230.2✓✗5866U 60.5—
Boise St at Oregon27–34+21.2+714.2✓✓5461O 51.5—
Maine at App State3–55+23.3+5228.7✓—5858O 53.5✓
Boston College at Cincinnati15–34+12.3+196.7✓✓5549O 51.5✗
Towson at Navy15–42+36.6+279.6✓✗5757O 50.5✓
UT Rio Grande at UTSA16–45+35.6+296.6✓✓6161O 59.5—
Fordham at N Dakota St0–38+47.3+389.3✓✗5438U 54.5—
The Citadel at Charlotte43–41+15.2-217.2✗✓5684O 48.5✓
Tennessee St at Georgia3–63+53.6+606.4✓✓5466U 55.5—
Rhode Island at Temple14–38+26.6+242.6✓✓5852O 51.5✓
SE Missouri at Iowa State10–38+43.2+2815.2✓✗5548O 52.5—
Youngstown St at Kentucky13–45+37.0+325.0✓✓5458U 61.5✓
Duquesne at Air Force0–34+28.3+345.7✓✗5834O 55.5—
Kent State at South Carolina0–57+32.5+5724.5✓—5157U 53.5—
Miami OH at Pitt14–59+15.7+4529.3✓—5373O 47.5✓
Ball State at Ohio State3–56+51.2+531.8✓—5159U 55.5✗
Ohio at Nebraska21–49+11.1+2816.9✓✗5170O 47.5✓
North Texas at Indiana16–52+23.5+3612.5✓✓6268O 56.5✓
East Carolina at Alabama10–48+17.8+3820.2✓✗5258U 52.5—
Oregon St at Houston20–33+18.0+135.0✓—4853U 50.5—
New Hampshire at Syracuse3–66+27.6+6335.4✓✗5869O 55.5—
Coastal at West Virginia24–31+13.9+76.9✓✓5655O 54.5—
Tarleton St at Bowling Green20–13+24.3-731.3✗✗5333O 49.5✗
Liberty at James Madison13–20+22.4+715.4✓✓5333O 50.5—
Bryant at Army3–59+33.2+5622.8✓✗5162U 51.5—
Lafayette at UConn7–56+33.5+4915.5✓✓6063O 51.5✓
Miami at Stanford45–6-20.5-3918.5✓✗5251——
Fresno St at USC0–39+18.1+3920.9✓✗5439——
Toledo at Michigan St20–30-3.8+1013.8✗✗4950——
Long Island at Kansas6–51+38.5+456.5✓✗5757——
UTEP at Oklahoma0–51+33.9+5117.1✓✗4851——
NC A&T at Georgia St10–59+16.1+4932.9✓✗5869——
Indiana St at Purdue19–44+25.8+250.8✓✓5663——
San José St at E Michigan27–21+2.1-68.1✗—5548——
UAB at Illinois23–42+25.4+196.4✓—5765——
Idaho at Utah14–66+50.8+521.2✓✓5880——
AR-Pine Bluff at Missouri14–54+45.3+405.3✓✓5468——
E Illinois at Minnesota7–59+36.1+5215.9✓✗5366——
Colorado at Georgia Tech14–13+11.7-112.7✗✗5527——
Akron at Wake Forest16–38+20.4+221.6✓✓5154——
Merrimack at Delaware7–42+20.9+3514.1✓✗6049——
UAlbany at Buffalo17–21+22.3+418.3✓✗5538——
West Georgia at Kennesaw St0–47+25.8+4721.2✓✓5547——
Bethune at UCF6–73+33.9+6733.1✓✗5479——
UMass at Rutgers37–21+35.2-1651.2✗✗5658——
Memphis at UNLV27–21+0.2-66.2✗✓6148——
Hawai'i at Stanford27–37+3.3+106.7✓—5164——
New Mexico St at Florida St17–34+26.8+179.8✓✓5151——
Sacramento St at E Michigan17–28-1.4+1112.4✗✗5345——
Jax State at N Dakota St7–33+9.1+2616.9✓—5440——
NC State at Virginia8–34+5.5+2620.5✓—5542——
San José St at USC26–42+32.9+1616.9✓✓5768——

How Close It Was

The record above says whether we were right. These say by how much, and how that compares with the book on the same games. Average miss on the final margin is 13.4 points. On these games the book missed by 11.7, so we are behind it by 1.6 points a game — on a sample this small that is noise, not a trend. Where the two disagreed by three points or more, this model has been right 127 times in 270 on the spread and 78 in 164 on the total.

Games scored
454
predicted before kickoff
Aug 29 – Oct 15
Over/under, every side taken
50%
190 of 378 games we differed from the book by 0.5+
Margin miss
13.4 pts
average, against the final margin
ours13.4
book11.7
Total miss
12.3 pts
average, against the points scored
ours12.3
book12.0
Scatter of our predicted line against the book's line for each game, with the line of agreement drawn