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Buffalo
Updated Thu, Oct 15 · 11:35 PM ET
3–3 · 132nd of 138
Rated -21.1 points vs an average FBS team · scoring -2.4 vs the average game
Projected Record
| Source | W–L | How |
|---|---|---|
| GordStats | 5.6–6.4 | Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left |
| ESPN FPI | 6.6–5.5 | ESPN's simulation of the full schedule |
Advanced
Offense EPA/play+0.0883rd of 138
Defense EPA/play+0.15100th of 138
Success rate35.1%130th of 138
Success allowed42.5%82nd of 138
Explosiveness0.9361st of 138
Defensive havoc15.3%81st of 138
3rd down35.9%102nd of 138
Turnover margin/g-0.67118th of 138
Opponent-adjusted where it can be; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.
Schedule
| Opponent | Date | Result | Expected | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 vs UAlbany | Sep 3 | W 21–17 | +22.3 | — |
2 at FIU | Sep 12 | L 20–33 | -14.4 | — |
3 at Penn State | Sep 19 | L 13–55 | -37.8 | — |
4 vs Robert Morris | Sep 26 | W 31–28 | +19.7 | — |
5 vs W Michigan | Oct 3 | L 17–20 | -12.4 | — |
6 at Toledo | Oct 10 | W 23–8 | -27.8 | — |
7 vs UMass | Oct 17 | proj 24–23 | +1.0 | 52% |
8 vs Bowling Green | Oct 24 | proj 23–22 | +0.4 | 51% |
10 at Miami OH | Nov 3 | proj 17–31 | -13.7 | 19% |
11 at Ball State | Nov 11 | proj 25–26 | -1.2 | 47% |
12 vs C Michigan | Nov 18 | proj 22–24 | -1.5 | 46% |
13 at Akron | Nov 27 | proj 23–27 | -4.0 | 40% |
Games without a final yet show this model's projected score, tagged proj. Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff, so a result can be read against what was expected of it. Win is the chance of winning an upcoming game. How well any of this has worked is on the predictions page.