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UMass at Buffalo

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

UMass4-2
at
Buffalo3-3

Sat, Oct 17 · 1:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Broadview Stadium · Buffalo, NY

☀️ 47° Mostly sunny · rain 29% · wind 12 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Buffalo by 1, the book by 7: a lean to UMass +7.

On the total, GordStats says 48 to the book's 42.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

MASS 48%win chanceBUFF 52%
GordStatsBUFF by 152% to win · MASS 23–BUFF 24
DraftKingsBUFF -7O/U 42.5
ESPN FPIBUFF 59%win chance
Watch score21Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • UMass' offensive line (43rd) meets Buffalo's defensive front (113th).
  • UMass' third-down defense (55th) meets Buffalo's third-down offense (102nd).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

UMass Offense vs Buffalo Defense

MASS offBUFF def
EPA per play
66th+0.10100th+0.15
Run EPA
88th+0.0562nd+0.06
Pass EPA
43rd+0.22103rd+0.26
Success rate
69th41%82nd42%
Explosiveness
101st0.9260th0.93
Line yards
43rd3.02113th3.09
Havoc
27th12%81st15%
Points per trip
69th3.8661st3.23
Third downs
103rd36%42nd33%

UMass: 56 plays a game (137th most) · passes on 45% of plays

Buffalo Offense vs UMass Defense

BUFF offMASS def
EPA per play
83rd+0.0878th+0.11
Run EPA
72nd+0.0679th+0.07
Pass EPA
100th+0.1454th+0.15
Success rate
130th35%100th44%
Explosiveness
61st0.9324th0.91
Line yards
119th2.79105th3.05
Havoc
96th16%89th15%
Points per trip
91st3.5818th2.75
Third downs
102nd36%55th35%

Buffalo: 76 plays a game (9th most) · passes on 45% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

UMass

  • QBWilliam Watson III+0.35 EPA a dropback · 100 dropbacks · 44th of 130 QBs
  • RBElijah Faulkner-0.18 EPA a carry · 59 carries · 190th of 194 RBs
  • WRTy Harding+0.56 EPA a target · 35 targets · 161st of 390 WRs
  • WRJabari Lewis+0.76 EPA a target · 21 targets · 82nd of 390 WRs

Buffalo

  • QBJason Wright+0.04 EPA a dropback · 130 dropbacks · 123rd of 130 QBs
  • RBMessiah Burch+0.04 EPA a carry · 72 carries · 138th of 194 RBs
  • WRChance Morrow+0.39 EPA a target · 68 targets · 246th of 390 WRs
  • TEClint Walker-0.06 EPA a target · 22 targets · 105th of 114 TEs

Recent Form

UMass

  • L19-20vs Miami OH+5
  • L14-38vs E Michigan−29
  • W35-6at Sacramento St+37
  • W36-14vs Stonehill+8

Buffalo

  • W23-8at Toledo+43
  • L17-20vs W Michigan+9
  • W31-28vs Robert Morris−17
  • L13-55at Penn State−4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).