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Bracket Helper

2027 NCAA tournament, projected field

Updated Sun, Nov 8 · 8:44 AM ET

Every team's chances, likely upsets and the picks to make, from our game model.

Projected FieldBracketology's 68 and seeds of Nov 8, placed in regions by the S-curve; the real bracket replaces it on Selection Sunday.

Suggested Picks iHow this works

Most Points

Champion: 1 Duke

Final Four: 1 Duke, 2 Houston, 1 Florida, 1 Illinois

Expected 895 of 1,920 points (10-20-40-80-160-320 scoring).

10 Entries

Champion: 1 Duke

Final Four: 1 Duke, 2 Houston, 1 Florida, 1 Illinois

Same as the most-points bracket.

50 Entries

Champion: 1 Duke

Final Four: 1 Duke, 2 Houston, 1 Florida, 1 Illinois

Same as the most-points bracket.

200+ Entries

Champion: 2 Houston

Final Four: 1 Duke, 2 Houston, 1 Florida, 1 Illinois

Gives up a little expected score for picks fewer entries are likely to have.

Every Pick in the Most-Points Bracket

Round of 64

1. 1 Duke (>99% to win it)
2. 9 Indiana (60% to win it)
3. 5 Tennessee (89% to win it)
4. 4 Louisville (89% to win it)
5. 6 Michigan (77% to win it)
6. 3 Connecticut (96% to win it)
7. 10 TCU (53% to win it)
8. 2 Arizona (97% to win it)
9. 1 Kansas (99% to win it)
10. 8 Kentucky (53% to win it)
11. 5 Alabama (87% to win it)
12. 4 Vanderbilt (92% to win it)
13. 6 Arkansas (68% to win it)
14. 3 Virginia (92% to win it)
15. 10 Iowa (52% to win it)
16. 2 Houston (98% to win it)
17. 1 Florida (99% to win it)
18. 8 St. John's (59% to win it)
19. 5 Miami FL (75% to win it)
20. 4 Nebraska (93% to win it)
21. 6 Marquette (66% to win it)
22. 3 Texas (93% to win it)
23. 7 Ohio St. (50% to win it)
24. 2 Gonzaga (97% to win it)
25. 1 Illinois (99% to win it)
26. 8 Cincinnati (52% to win it)
27. 5 UCLA (81% to win it)
28. 4 Texas Tech (89% to win it)
29. 6 BYU (68% to win it)
30. 3 Iowa St. (93% to win it)
31. 7 Missouri (55% to win it)
32. 2 Michigan St. (96% to win it)

Round of 32

1. 1 Duke (86% to win it)
2. 4 Louisville (50% to win it)
3. 3 Connecticut (54% to win it)
4. 2 Arizona (69% to win it)
5. 1 Kansas (72% to win it)
6. 4 Vanderbilt (58% to win it)
7. 3 Virginia (56% to win it)
8. 2 Houston (72% to win it)
9. 1 Florida (75% to win it)
10. 4 Nebraska (59% to win it)
11. 3 Texas (55% to win it)
12. 2 Gonzaga (65% to win it)
13. 1 Illinois (84% to win it)
14. 4 Texas Tech (48% to win it)
15. 3 Iowa St. (57% to win it)
16. 2 Michigan St. (69% to win it)

Sweet 16

1. 1 Duke (63% to win it)
2. 2 Arizona (37% to win it)
3. 1 Kansas (44% to win it)
4. 2 Houston (47% to win it)
5. 1 Florida (52% to win it)
6. 2 Gonzaga (42% to win it)
7. 1 Illinois (61% to win it)
8. 2 Michigan St. (41% to win it)

Elite Eight

1. 1 Duke (44% to win it)
2. 2 Houston (30% to win it)
3. 1 Florida (35% to win it)
4. 1 Illinois (42% to win it)

Final Four

1. 1 Duke (30% to win it)
2. 1 Illinois (28% to win it)

Title Game

1. 1 Duke (20% to win it)

Title Chances

Est. Picked is our estimate of the share of entries picking the team to win it all, from its seed and rating; no public pick data is used.

Team	F4	Title	Est. Picked
1 Duke	44	20	21
1 Illinois	42	16	17
1 Florida	35	11	11
2 Houston	30	8	7
1 Kansas	23	6	9
2 Gonzaga	21	5	6
2 Michigan St.	20	5	5
2 Arizona	16	4	5
3 Connecticut	12	3	2
3 Iowa St.	12	2	2
3 Virginia	13	2	2
4 Nebraska	13	2	2

Likely Upsets

Lower seeds with a 25% or better chance in the first round (8 v 9 games left out).

First-Round Upset	Chance
10 TCU over 7 Auburn	53
10 Iowa over 7 Texas A&M	52
10 Purdue over 7 Ohio St.	50
10 Baylor over 7 Missouri	45
11 Xavier over 6 Marquette	34
11 Saint Mary's/High Point over 6 Arkansas	32
11 Grand Canyon/Saint Louis over 6 BYU	32
12 McNeese over 5 Miami FL	25

Seeded 10th or lower with a 15%+ chance at the Sweet 16: 10 Purdue (18%), 10 TCU (17%), 10 Iowa (15%).

Round by Round

Each team's chance to reach each round, from 20,000 simulated tournaments. A First Four team's line counts its play-in game.

Duke Region

Team	R32	S16	E8	F4	Final	Champ
1 Duke	>99	86	63	44	30	20
16 Tennessee St. (First Four, 60%)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
16 LIU (First Four, 40%)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
8 USC	40	4	1	<1	<1	<1
9 Indiana	60	10	4	1	<1	<1
5 Tennessee	89	46	15	7	3	1
12 UC Santa Barbara	11	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
4 Louisville	89	50	16	8	3	2
13 Illinois Chicago	11	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
6 Michigan	77	40	22	9	5	2
11 Mississippi	23	6	2	<1	<1	<1
3 Connecticut	96	54	29	12	6	3
14 James Madison	4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
7 Auburn	47	13	4	1	<1	<1
10 TCU	53	17	6	2	1	<1
2 Arizona	97	69	37	16	9	4
15 St. Thomas	3	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Kansas Region

Team	R32	S16	E8	F4	Final	Champ
1 Kansas	99	72	44	23	11	6
16 Queens	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
8 Kentucky	53	15	6	2	<1	<1
9 Villanova	47	13	5	2	<1	<1
5 Alabama	87	40	17	6	2	1
12 Memphis	13	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
4 Vanderbilt	92	58	29	13	5	2
13 UNC Wilmington	8	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
6 Arkansas	68	32	12	6	2	1
11 Saint Mary's (First Four, 67%)	25	9	3	1	<1	<1
11 High Point (First Four, 33%)	7	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
3 Virginia	92	56	26	13	5	2
14 Furman	8	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
7 Texas A&M	48	12	5	2	<1	<1
10 Iowa	52	15	7	3	1	<1
2 Houston	98	72	47	30	15	8
15 Howard	2	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Florida Region

Team	R32	S16	E8	F4	Final	Champ
1 Florida	99	75	52	35	20	11
16 Iona (First Four, 46%)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
16 Bethune Cookman (First Four, 54%)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
8 St. John's	59	16	8	3	1	<1
9 West Virginia	41	9	3	1	<1	<1
5 Miami FL	75	34	12	5	2	1
12 McNeese	25	6	1	<1	<1	<1
4 Nebraska	93	59	25	13	5	2
13 Western Kentucky	7	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
6 Marquette	66	32	13	5	2	1
11 Xavier	34	12	3	1	<1	<1
3 Texas	93	55	25	10	4	1
14 Penn	7	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
7 Ohio St.	50	17	8	3	1	<1
10 Purdue	50	18	9	3	1	<1
2 Gonzaga	97	65	42	21	11	5
15 Vermont	3	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Illinois Region

Team	R32	S16	E8	F4	Final	Champ
1 Illinois	99	84	61	42	28	16
16 American	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
8 Cincinnati	52	9	4	1	<1	<1
9 Oklahoma St.	48	7	3	1	<1	<1
5 UCLA	81	46	16	7	3	1
12 Akron	19	5	1	<1	<1	<1
4 Texas Tech	89	48	16	7	3	1
13 Wright St.	11	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
6 BYU	68	32	14	5	2	1
11 Grand Canyon (First Four, 42%)	11	3	1	<1	<1	<1
11 Saint Louis (First Four, 58%)	20	7	2	<1	<1	<1
3 Iowa St.	93	57	29	12	6	2
14 Montana St.	7	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
7 Missouri	55	18	7	2	1	<1
10 Baylor	45	13	5	1	<1	<1
2 Michigan St.	96	69	41	20	10	5
15 Central Arkansas	4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

First Round Games

Each game's win chance on a neutral floor. Later rounds: Any Matchup below.

Duke Region

Game	Our Pick
First Four: 16 Tennessee St. v 16 LIU	Tennessee St. 59%
1 Duke v 16 Tennessee St./LIU	Duke >99%
8 USC v 9 Indiana	Indiana 61%
5 Tennessee v 12 UC Santa Barbara	Tennessee 89%
4 Louisville v 13 Illinois Chicago	Louisville 88%
6 Michigan v 11 Mississippi	Michigan 77%
3 Connecticut v 14 James Madison	Connecticut 96%
7 Auburn v 10 TCU	TCU 53%
2 Arizona v 15 St. Thomas	Arizona 97%

Kansas Region

Game	Our Pick
1 Kansas v 16 Queens	Kansas 99%
8 Kentucky v 9 Villanova	Kentucky 53%
5 Alabama v 12 Memphis	Alabama 88%
4 Vanderbilt v 13 UNC Wilmington	Vanderbilt 92%
First Four: 11 Saint Mary's v 11 High Point	Saint Mary's 67%
6 Arkansas v 11 Saint Mary's/High Point	Arkansas 68%
3 Virginia v 14 Furman	Virginia 92%
7 Texas A&M v 10 Iowa	Iowa 52%
2 Houston v 15 Howard	Houston 98%

Florida Region

Game	Our Pick
First Four: 16 Iona v 16 Bethune Cookman	Bethune Cookman 54%
1 Florida v 16 Iona/Bethune Cookman	Florida 99%
8 St. John's v 9 West Virginia	St. John's 59%
5 Miami FL v 12 McNeese	Miami FL 75%
4 Nebraska v 13 Western Kentucky	Nebraska 92%
6 Marquette v 11 Xavier	Marquette 66%
3 Texas v 14 Penn	Texas 93%
7 Ohio St. v 10 Purdue	Ohio St. 50%
2 Gonzaga v 15 Vermont	Gonzaga 97%

Illinois Region

Game	Our Pick
1 Illinois v 16 American	Illinois 99%
8 Cincinnati v 9 Oklahoma St.	Cincinnati 53%
5 UCLA v 12 Akron	UCLA 82%
4 Texas Tech v 13 Wright St.	Texas Tech 89%
First Four: 11 Grand Canyon v 11 Saint Louis	Saint Louis 58%
6 BYU v 11 Grand Canyon/Saint Louis	BYU 68%
3 Iowa St. v 14 Montana St.	Iowa St. 93%
7 Missouri v 10 Baylor	Missouri 55%
2 Michigan St. v 15 Central Arkansas	Michigan St. 97%

Any Matchup

Team1 Duke1 Florida1 Illinois1 Kansas2 Arizona2 Gonzaga2 Houston2 Michigan St.3 Connecticut3 Iowa St.3 Texas3 Virginia4 Louisville4 Nebraska4 Texas Tech4 Vanderbilt5 Alabama5 Miami FL5 Tennessee5 UCLA6 Arkansas6 BYU6 Marquette6 Michigan7 Auburn7 Missouri7 Ohio St.7 Texas A&M8 Cincinnati8 Kentucky8 St. John's8 USC9 Indiana9 Oklahoma St.9 Villanova9 West Virginia10 Baylor10 Iowa10 Purdue10 TCU11 Grand Canyon11 High Point11 Mississippi11 Saint Louis11 Saint Mary's11 Xavier12 Akron12 McNeese12 Memphis12 UC Santa Barbara13 Illinois Chicago13 UNC Wilmington13 Western Kentucky13 Wright St.14 Furman14 James Madison14 Montana St.14 Penn15 Central Arkansas15 Howard15 St. Thomas15 Vermont16 American16 Bethune Cookman16 Iona16 LIU16 Queens16 Tennessee St.vs1 Duke1 Florida1 Illinois1 Kansas2 Arizona2 Gonzaga2 Houston2 Michigan St.3 Connecticut3 Iowa St.3 Texas3 Virginia4 Louisville4 Nebraska4 Texas Tech4 Vanderbilt5 Alabama5 Miami FL5 Tennessee5 UCLA6 Arkansas6 BYU6 Marquette6 Michigan7 Auburn7 Missouri7 Ohio St.7 Texas A&M8 Cincinnati8 Kentucky8 St. John's8 USC9 Indiana9 Oklahoma St.9 Villanova9 West Virginia10 Baylor10 Iowa10 Purdue10 TCU11 Grand Canyon11 High Point11 Mississippi11 Saint Louis11 Saint Mary's11 Xavier12 Akron12 McNeese12 Memphis12 UC Santa Barbara13 Illinois Chicago13 UNC Wilmington13 Western Kentucky13 Wright St.14 Furman14 James Madison14 Montana St.14 Penn15 Central Arkansas15 Howard15 St. Thomas15 Vermont16 American16 Bethune Cookman16 Iona16 LIU16 Queens16 Tennessee St.