CFB Matchup Strength

2026 — fantasy points allowed by position, schedule-adjusted

Updated Wed, Sep 30 · 8:32 PM ET

1.00 is par: above 1, a defence to attack; below 1, one to avoid. From 331 games so far.

How this is worked out

Fantasy points allowed per position, in this league's own scoring, against what this site's model said the opposing offence should have scored - 1.00 is a defence giving up exactly what its schedule implies.

Every finished game's ESPN box score is scored with the league's modifiers, then each position's haul is set against the share of the opposing offence's predicted points that position normally takes. That adjustment is the whole point: three weeks of FCS visitors make any defence look elite, and this asks instead whether it held offences to less than they should have managed. Ratings on fewer than five games are pulled toward par, so one shootout in September does not brand a defence for the season.

Schedule ahead

Each roster's next weeks, priced by who its players face (weighted by what each is projected to be worth). Higher is easier; a bye is left out.

Team	Wk 5	Wk 6	Wk 7	Wk 8	Wk 9	Wk 10	Average
1Austin's Best Team	0.99	1.02	1.09	1.03	1.14	1.10	1.06
2I Stand With Diggs	1.06	0.93	1.01	0.99	1.03	0.95	0.99
3Mike Locksley	0.99	1.01	0.89	0.95	0.97	1.12	0.99
4Jackson's Brilliant Team	0.95	1.13	0.81	1.10	0.99	0.94	0.99
5Too B1G Too Strong Too Fast	1.00	0.97	1.02	0.93	0.90	1.04	0.98
6Max's Majestic Team	0.95	0.99	1.09	0.93	0.90	0.97	0.98
7Puntaholics	0.91	0.93	0.96	0.99	0.98	1.07	0.97
8Benjamin Brahman	0.90	0.85	1.08	1.04	0.96	0.99	0.97
9CCAM State	1.06	1.01	1.06	0.87	0.90	0.92	0.97
10Cameron's Choice Team	0.98	0.95	0.96	0.86	1.00	1.06	0.97

Defence vs position

Every FBS defence, toughest first: 1 gives up the least against expectation, the last place the most.

Defence	QB	RB	WR	TE	All
1UAB	0.98	0.66	0.55	0.35	0.63
2FIU	0.54	0.74	0.80	0.54	0.65
3UMass	0.73	0.66	1.04	0.33	0.69
4Oklahoma St	0.91	0.85	0.79	0.30	0.71
5Liberty	0.68	0.86	0.81	0.57	0.73
6Michigan St	0.85	0.89	0.79	0.41	0.74
7Kent State	0.74	0.87	0.89	0.50	0.75
8Kansas St	0.73	1.09	0.65	0.56	0.76
9Sam Houston	0.74	0.87	0.63	0.84	0.77
10Texas	0.63	0.83	0.85	0.77	0.77
11Kennesaw St	0.90	0.89	0.81	0.49	0.77
12Coastal	1.02	0.90	0.83	0.36	0.78
13Charlotte	0.92	0.85	0.78	0.58	0.78
14MTSU	0.92	0.81	0.75	0.65	0.78
15Bowling Green	0.84	1.17	0.70	0.43	0.79
16Boston College	0.91	1.04	0.74	0.50	0.80
17Utah State	0.96	0.64	1.02	0.60	0.80
18Troy	0.99	0.80	1.10	0.34	0.81
19Akron	1.02	0.83	1.02	0.36	0.81
20Georgia St	0.94	0.81	0.91	0.58	0.81
21GA Southern	0.92	0.59	0.82	0.92	0.81
22N Dakota St	0.99	0.58	1.08	0.67	0.83
23Syracuse	0.68	0.91	0.70	1.04	0.83
24San José St	0.80	1.05	0.84	0.64	0.83
25East Carolina	0.84	0.84	0.77	0.88	0.83
26App State	0.74	0.94	0.90	0.75	0.83
27W Michigan	1.16	0.80	1.00	0.42	0.84
28Arizona St	0.92	0.82	0.97	0.67	0.85
29Tulsa	0.88	1.04	0.86	0.61	0.85
30C Michigan	0.93	0.80	0.72	0.93	0.85
31LSU	0.71	0.65	0.96	1.07	0.85
32New Mexico St	1.02	1.04	0.71	0.62	0.85
33Jax State	0.87	0.94	0.66	0.94	0.85
34UL Monroe	0.95	0.92	1.02	0.53	0.85
35Sacramento St	0.96	0.82	0.72	0.93	0.85
36Virginia	1.14	0.66	0.85	0.78	0.86
37Colorado St	0.66	1.24	0.75	0.78	0.86
38Ball State	1.11	0.96	0.91	0.45	0.86
39Oklahoma	0.79	0.85	0.57	1.23	0.86
40Fresno St	0.96	0.74	1.24	0.55	0.87
41Air Force	0.85	1.10	0.79	0.75	0.87
42Rice	0.98	0.88	0.92	0.72	0.87
43Southern Miss	0.89	1.03	0.76	0.82	0.88
44UTSA	0.88	1.11	0.88	0.63	0.88
45Delaware	1.15	0.64	1.06	0.69	0.89
46UTEP	0.88	0.76	0.85	1.05	0.89
47UNLV	0.77	0.89	0.73	1.17	0.89
48Rutgers	0.96	1.03	0.82	0.74	0.89
49Purdue	1.10	0.86	0.86	0.74	0.89
50Louisiana	0.68	0.78	0.69	1.42	0.89
51Iowa State	0.80	1.25	0.82	0.72	0.90
52Western KY	0.99	1.15	0.76	0.69	0.90
53California	0.59	1.16	0.78	1.07	0.90
54Northwestern	0.91	1.12	1.08	0.50	0.90
55Duke	0.98	0.84	1.14	0.68	0.91
56Utah	0.97	0.77	1.09	0.84	0.92
57E Michigan	0.90	0.69	0.94	1.15	0.92
58Colorado	1.14	0.82	0.99	0.77	0.93
59North Texas	0.98	0.99	0.82	0.93	0.93
60Tennessee	0.57	1.17	0.76	1.24	0.94
61Buffalo	1.09	0.86	1.03	0.76	0.94
62Pitt	0.83	0.88	1.33	0.72	0.94
63Kansas	1.06	0.78	1.02	0.90	0.94
64Hawai'i	0.81	1.08	0.74	1.19	0.95
65Nevada	1.05	0.99	0.70	1.09	0.96
66San Diego St	0.98	1.18	0.73	0.95	0.96
67Texas St	1.02	1.00	1.24	0.59	0.96
68N Illinois	1.13	0.74	0.95	1.02	0.96
69South Alabama	0.83	1.12	0.82	1.09	0.96
70Oregon St	0.92	0.90	0.92	1.13	0.97
71NC State	1.12	0.88	0.85	1.03	0.97
72Washington	1.43	0.80	1.21	0.45	0.97
73Washington St	1.24	0.96	0.98	0.71	0.97
74Army	1.28	0.94	1.00	0.72	0.98
75Louisiana Tech	1.14	0.85	0.77	1.19	0.99
76Auburn	0.80	1.10	1.06	1.00	0.99
77Missouri St	1.12	0.88	0.85	1.13	0.99
78Kentucky	0.97	1.16	0.93	0.93	1.00
79Missouri	1.17	1.01	1.24	0.57	1.00
80Ohio State	1.00	1.25	1.05	0.71	1.00
81Wisconsin	0.84	1.01	0.63	1.53	1.00
82Minnesota	1.16	0.84	0.94	1.08	1.00
83Clemson	1.01	1.11	0.73	1.17	1.01
84Vanderbilt	1.08	0.99	1.01	0.95	1.01
85Notre Dame	0.84	0.57	1.28	1.35	1.01
86West Virginia	1.09	1.06	1.16	0.74	1.01
87Stanford	0.98	0.96	0.99	1.16	1.02
88Baylor	1.12	0.75	0.83	1.40	1.03
89Arkansas	1.02	0.88	0.60	1.62	1.03
90Memphis	1.14	1.15	1.12	0.71	1.03
91Tulane	1.12	0.98	0.88	1.16	1.03
92North Carolina	0.65	0.97	0.93	1.59	1.04
93Georgia Tech	0.93	1.23	0.80	1.21	1.04
94Florida	1.32	0.68	1.33	0.85	1.05
95Texas A&M	1.14	0.90	0.91	1.26	1.05
96Maryland	0.84	0.96	0.63	1.80	1.06
97UCF	0.77	1.08	0.98	1.40	1.06
98Mississippi St	1.10	0.93	0.95	1.32	1.07
99Navy	1.20	0.76	1.34	1.00	1.08
100New Mexico	0.64	0.77	0.93	1.98	1.08
101Ohio	1.17	1.21	0.67	1.32	1.09
102Arizona	1.35	0.72	1.48	0.83	1.09
103Old Dominion	0.89	0.76	0.79	1.94	1.09
104Toledo	1.12	0.89	1.05	1.32	1.10
105Cincinnati	1.19	0.96	1.20	1.06	1.10
106Iowa	1.04	0.82	1.21	1.34	1.10
107FAU	1.16	0.69	0.83	1.74	1.10
108Arkansas St	0.88	1.03	0.76	1.74	1.10
109Wyoming	1.42	1.10	0.89	1.05	1.12
110Temple	1.24	0.72	0.86	1.67	1.12
111Miami OH	1.33	0.94	1.00	1.23	1.13
112Louisville	0.98	1.13	0.92	1.48	1.13
113Virginia Tech	1.38	0.50	0.92	1.72	1.13
114TCU	0.76	1.03	0.77	2.01	1.14
115Nebraska	0.95	0.97	0.91	1.75	1.15
116SMU	1.11	1.21	0.71	1.56	1.15
117Ole Miss	1.06	1.06	0.84	1.64	1.15
118South Carolina	1.40	0.63	1.30	1.29	1.15
119Oregon	1.40	0.82	1.30	1.11	1.16
120Illinois	1.54	1.02	1.07	1.03	1.16
121Michigan	1.13	0.79	1.03	1.73	1.17
122USC	1.31	0.92	1.01	1.45	1.17
123Marshall	1.26	0.75	1.18	1.49	1.17
124UConn	1.09	0.77	1.24	1.60	1.17
125Wake Forest	1.10	0.80	1.00	1.89	1.20
126James Madison	0.94	1.24	1.26	1.50	1.23
127UCLA	0.82	0.92	0.94	2.35	1.26
128Alabama	1.16	0.85	1.04	2.03	1.27
129South Florida	1.54	0.90	1.12	1.54	1.27
130Florida St	1.27	0.92	1.20	1.72	1.28
131Boise St	1.10	0.79	1.01	2.55	1.36
132Houston	1.27	0.93	1.26	2.04	1.38
133BYU	1.13	1.26	0.99	2.14	1.38
134Penn State	1.04	0.84	0.62	3.24	1.43
135Indiana	1.21	0.88	1.06	3.17	1.58
136Miami	1.22	0.81	1.51	2.83	1.59
137Georgia	1.25	0.74	1.10	3.28	1.59
138Texas Tech	1.65	1.29	1.57	2.04	1.64