CFB Playoff Odds
2026 season · 10,000 simulations
Updated Sat, Oct 3 · 12:57 AM ET
Projected bracket How this works
The likeliest field; % is each team's chance to make it.
Semifinal 1
Semifinal 2
Every contender
Chances in percent, ours beside ESPN FPI's, for every team at 1% or better by either. Tap a column to sort.
| Team | Playoff | FPI | Bye | Conf | Title | Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Notre Dame4-0 | 76 | 85 | 32 | 11 | 5.7 | |
 Miami4-0 | 75 | 85 | 37 | 61 | 10 | 5.3 |
 Alabama4-0 | 74 | 73 | 42 | 24 | 10 | 4.4 |
 Georgia4-0 | 73 | 83 | 40 | 30 | 11 | 4.5 |
 Indiana4-0 | 71 | 66 | 37 | 34 | 11 | 4.9 |
 Texas4-0 | 69 | 90 | 39 | 17 | 6 | 4.4 |
 Ohio State3-1 | 61 | 68 | 30 | 26 | 9 | 5.1 |
 James Madison4-0 | 58 | 28 | 1 | 70 | 1 | 10.4 |
 Oregon3-1 | 48 | 40 | 17 | 20 | 5 | 6.2 |
 Utah4-0 | 47 | 50 | 17 | 29 | 3 | 6.0 |
 LSU3-1 | 43 | 40 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 6.0 |
 Texas Tech4-0 | 39 | 49 | 10 | 24 | 2 | 6.9 |
 Iowa4-0 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 6.6 |
 BYU3-0 | 31 | 30 | 10 | 16 | 2 | 6.4 |
 Florida4-0 | 29 | 50 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 6.3 |
 Mississippi St4-0 | 29 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 6.3 |
 Pitt5-0 | 26 | 22 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 7.4 |
 Ole Miss3-1 | 25 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6.8 |
 Tennessee3-1 | 19 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7.2 |
 UCLA4-0 | 19 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 7.3 |
 Oklahoma2-2 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7.0 |
 Houston3-1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 8.0 |
 USC4-1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7.4 |
 Duke4-0 | 12 | 15 | 2 | 5 | <1 | 7.6 |
 Michigan3-1 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7.4 |
 Missouri3-1 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | <1 | 7.5 |
 Texas A&M2-2 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7.8 |
 South Florida4-0 | 9 | 5 | <1 | 21 | <1 | 11.2 |
 Boise St3-1 | 9 | 34 | · | 39 | <1 | 11.4 |
 Kansas St3-1 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | <1 | 8.4 |
 Auburn3-1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | <1 | 7.4 |
 UCF3-1 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 6 | <1 | 8.7 |
 Virginia3-1 | 8 | 8 | <1 | 6 | <1 | 9.5 |
 Nebraska4-0 | 8 | 26 | 1 | 1 | <1 | 7.6 |
 SMU3-1 | 7 | 5 | <1 | 5 | <1 | 9.3 |
 Cincinnati4-0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | <1 | 7.6 |
 Arizona3-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | <1 | 8.2 |
 Kentucky3-1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | <1 | <1 | 7.8 |
 Northwestern3-1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | <1 | <1 | 8.0 |
 N Dakota St4-0 | 6 | 7 | · | 31 | <1 | 11.5 |
 New Mexico3-1 | 5 | 8 | · | 39 | <1 | 11.8 |
 Vanderbilt3-1 | 4 | <1 | 1 | <1 | <1 | 7.7 |
 Louisville2-2 | 4 | 4 | <1 | 4 | <1 | 10.2 |
 Arizona St2-1 | 4 | 1 | <1 | 3 | <1 | 8.5 |
 Virginia Tech4-1 | 4 | 8 | <1 | 1 | <1 | 8.7 |
 Wake Forest3-1 | 4 | 4 | <1 | 1 | <1 | 8.6 |
 South Carolina2-2 | 3 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 8.3 |
 Clemson3-1 | 3 | 4 | <1 | 2 | <1 | 9.1 |
 North Texas3-2 | 3 | 1 | · | 27 | <1 | 11.9 |
 Baylor3-1 | 3 | 3 | <1 | 2 | <1 | 8.5 |
 Wisconsin3-1 | 3 | 6 | <1 | 1 | <1 | 8.6 |
 TCU2-2 | 2 | 1 | <1 | 2 | <1 | 9.6 |
 Minnesota3-1 | 2 | <1 | <1 | 1 | <1 | 8.7 |
 Iowa State2-2 | 2 | <1 | <1 | 1 | <1 | 9.3 |
 Toledo3-1 | 2 | 2 | · | 48 | <1 | 11.9 |
 UTSA3-1 | 2 | 5 | · | 9 | · | 11.6 |
 Oklahoma St3-1 | 2 | 4 | <1 | 1 | · | 8.8 |
 NC State2-2 | 2 | <1 | · | 2 | <1 | 10.7 |
 Illinois2-2 | 2 | 0 | <1 | 1 | <1 | 8.7 |
 Washington3-1 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 8.2 |
 Memphis3-1 | 2 | 3 | · | 10 | <1 | 11.8 |
 Kansas1-2 | 1 | <1 | <1 | 1 | <1 | 10.0 |
 Florida St2-2 | 1 | 0 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 8.5 |
 Liberty4-1 | 1 | 1 | · | 30 | · | 12.0 |
 Penn State3-2 | 1 | 9 | · | <1 | <1 | 9.7 |
 Fresno St3-1 | 1 | 2 | · | 9 | · | |
 Louisiana3-1 | <1 | 2 | · | 3 | · | |
 UMass4-0 | <1 | 2 | · | 4 | · |