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Bracket Helper

2027 NCAA tournament, projected field

Updated Sun, Nov 8 · 2:50 AM ET

Every team's chances, likely upsets and the picks to make, from our game model.

Projected FieldBracketology's 68 and seeds of Nov 8, placed in regions by the S-curve; the real bracket replaces it on Selection Sunday.

Suggested Picks iHow this works

Most Points

Champion: 1 Connecticut

Final Four: 1 Connecticut, 2 LSU, 1 South Carolina, 1 USC

Expected 1,156 of 1,920 points (10-20-40-80-160-320 scoring).

10 Entries

Champion: 1 Connecticut

Final Four: 1 Connecticut, 2 LSU, 1 South Carolina, 1 USC

Same as the most-points bracket.

50 Entries

Champion: 1 Connecticut

Final Four: 1 Connecticut, 2 LSU, 1 South Carolina, 3 UCLA

Gives up a little expected score for picks fewer entries are likely to have.

200+ Entries

Champion: 1 Connecticut

Final Four: 1 Connecticut, 2 LSU, 1 South Carolina, 3 UCLA

Gives up a little expected score for picks fewer entries are likely to have.

Every Pick in the Most-Points Bracket

Round of 64

1. 1 Connecticut (>99% to win it)
2. 8 Miami FL (51% to win it)
3. 5 Washington (88% to win it)
4. 4 Notre Dame (91% to win it)
5. 6 Nebraska (67% to win it)
6. 3 Louisville (98% to win it)
7. 7 N.C. State (64% to win it)
8. 2 Texas (98% to win it)
9. 1 Iowa (99% to win it)
10. 8 Minnesota (59% to win it)
11. 5 TCU (84% to win it)
12. 4 Vanderbilt (96% to win it)
13. 6 Maryland (83% to win it)
14. 3 North Carolina (94% to win it)
15. 7 Alabama (59% to win it)
16. 2 LSU (>99% to win it)
17. 1 South Carolina (>99% to win it)
18. 8 Michigan St. (57% to win it)
19. 5 Tennessee (88% to win it)
20. 4 Oklahoma (93% to win it)
21. 6 Oklahoma St. (77% to win it)
22. 3 Duke (95% to win it)
23. 7 Villanova (63% to win it)
24. 2 Ohio St. (98% to win it)
25. 1 USC (>99% to win it)
26. 8 Mississippi (56% to win it)
27. 5 Illinois (86% to win it)
28. 4 Baylor (91% to win it)
29. 6 Kentucky (78% to win it)
30. 3 UCLA (94% to win it)
31. 7 Oregon (61% to win it)
32. 2 Michigan (97% to win it)

Round of 32

1. 1 Connecticut (95% to win it)
2. 4 Notre Dame (51% to win it)
3. 3 Louisville (76% to win it)
4. 2 Texas (77% to win it)
5. 1 Iowa (82% to win it)
6. 4 Vanderbilt (65% to win it)
7. 3 North Carolina (63% to win it)
8. 2 LSU (85% to win it)
9. 1 South Carolina (91% to win it)
10. 4 Oklahoma (60% to win it)
11. 3 Duke (71% to win it)
12. 2 Ohio St. (78% to win it)
13. 1 USC (86% to win it)
14. 4 Baylor (58% to win it)
15. 3 UCLA (67% to win it)
16. 2 Michigan (79% to win it)

Sweet 16

1. 1 Connecticut (87% to win it)
2. 2 Texas (44% to win it)
3. 1 Iowa (55% to win it)
4. 2 LSU (59% to win it)
5. 1 South Carolina (75% to win it)
6. 2 Ohio St. (47% to win it)
7. 1 USC (64% to win it)
8. 2 Michigan (49% to win it)

Elite Eight

1. 1 Connecticut (73% to win it)
2. 2 LSU (35% to win it)
3. 1 South Carolina (53% to win it)
4. 1 USC (41% to win it)

Final Four

1. 1 Connecticut (60% to win it)
2. 1 South Carolina (35% to win it)

Title Game

1. 1 Connecticut (46% to win it)

Title Chances

Est. Picked is our estimate of the share of entries picking the team to win it all, from its seed and rating; no public pick data is used.

Team	F4	Title	Est. Picked
1 Connecticut	73	46	39
1 South Carolina	53	16	18
1 USC	41	8	13
1 Iowa	31	5	10
2 LSU	35	5	4
2 Michigan	25	4	4
2 Ohio St.	20	3	4
2 Texas	11	3	2
3 Duke	15	2	1
3 Louisville	10	2	1
3 UCLA	16	2	1
3 North Carolina	13	1	1

Likely Upsets

Lower seeds with a 25% or better chance in the first round (8 v 9 games left out).

First-Round Upset	Chance
10 Colorado over 7 Alabama	40
10 Indiana over 7 Oregon	39
10 Kansas over 7 N.C. State	37
10 Florida St. over 7 Villanova	37
11 Florida over 6 Nebraska	32

Round by Round

Each team's chance to reach each round, from 20,000 simulated tournaments. A First Four team's line counts its play-in game.

Connecticut Region

Team	R32	S16	E8	F4	Final	Champ
1 Connecticut	>99	95	87	73	60	46
16 Southern Indiana (First Four, 58%)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
16 Southern (First Four, 42%)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
8 Miami FL	51	2	1	<1	<1	<1
9 Clemson	49	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5 Washington	88	46	6	2	1	<1
12 High Point	12	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
4 Notre Dame	91	51	5	2	1	<1
13 UNLV	9	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
6 Nebraska	67	19	6	1	<1	<1
11 Florida	33	5	1	<1	<1	<1
3 Louisville	98	76	42	10	5	2
14 Navy	2	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
7 N.C. State	64	17	5	1	<1	<1
10 Kansas	36	6	1	<1	<1	<1
2 Texas	98	77	44	11	6	3
15 UC San Diego	2	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Iowa Region

Team	R32	S16	E8	F4	Final	Champ
1 Iowa	99	82	55	31	10	5
16 Fairleigh Dickinson	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
8 Minnesota	59	12	4	1	<1	<1
9 California	41	6	2	<1	<1	<1
5 TCU	84	33	11	4	1	<1
12 Santa Clara	16	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
4 Vanderbilt	96	65	28	12	3	1
13 Murray St.	4	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
6 Maryland	83	34	9	3	<1	<1
11 Columbia (First Four, 51%)	9	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
11 Gonzaga (First Four, 49%)	8	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
3 North Carolina	94	63	27	13	3	1
14 Abilene Christian	6	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
7 Alabama	59	10	4	1	<1	<1
10 Colorado	41	4	1	<1	<1	<1
2 LSU	>99	85	59	35	10	5
15 Stephen F. Austin	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

South Carolina Region

Team	R32	S16	E8	F4	Final	Champ
1 South Carolina	>99	91	75	53	35	16
16 UMBC (First Four, 50%)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
16 East Tennessee St. (First Four, 50%)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
8 Michigan St.	57	6	2	<1	<1	<1
9 West Virginia	43	3	1	<1	<1	<1
5 Tennessee	88	38	7	3	1	<1
12 James Madison	12	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
4 Oklahoma	93	60	15	6	2	1
13 Missouri St.	7	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
6 Oklahoma St.	77	24	8	2	<1	<1
11 South Dakota St.	23	4	<1	<1	<1	<1
3 Duke	95	71	39	15	7	2
14 Green Bay	5	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
7 Villanova	63	16	5	1	<1	<1
10 Florida St.	37	5	1	<1	<1	<1
2 Ohio St.	98	78	47	20	10	3
15 Florida Gulf Coast	2	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

USC Region

Team	R32	S16	E8	F4	Final	Champ
1 USC	>99	86	64	41	21	8
16 Howard	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
8 Mississippi	56	9	3	1	<1	<1
9 Arizona St.	44	5	2	<1	<1	<1
5 Illinois	86	39	11	4	1	<1
12 Fairfield	14	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
4 Baylor	91	58	21	9	3	1
13 Saint Joseph's	9	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
6 Kentucky	78	28	10	3	1	<1
11 Montana St. (First Four, 50%)	11	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
11 South Florida (First Four, 50%)	11	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
3 UCLA	94	67	34	16	6	2
14 Miami OH	6	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
7 Oregon	61	14	5	1	<1	<1
10 Indiana	39	6	1	<1	<1	<1
2 Michigan	97	79	49	25	11	4
15 Hofstra	3	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

First Round Games

Each game's win chance on a neutral floor. Later rounds: Any Matchup below.

Connecticut Region

Game	Our Pick
First Four: 16 Southern Indiana v 16 Southern	Southern Indiana 57%
1 Connecticut v 16 Southern Indiana/Southern	Connecticut >99%
8 Miami FL v 9 Clemson	Miami FL 50%
5 Washington v 12 High Point	Washington 88%
4 Notre Dame v 13 UNLV	Notre Dame 91%
6 Nebraska v 11 Florida	Nebraska 68%
3 Louisville v 14 Navy	Louisville 98%
7 N.C. State v 10 Kansas	N.C. State 63%
2 Texas v 15 UC San Diego	Texas 98%

Iowa Region

Game	Our Pick
1 Iowa v 16 Fairleigh Dickinson	Iowa 99%
8 Minnesota v 9 California	Minnesota 59%
5 TCU v 12 Santa Clara	TCU 84%
4 Vanderbilt v 13 Murray St.	Vanderbilt 96%
First Four: 11 Columbia v 11 Gonzaga	Columbia 51%
6 Maryland v 11 Columbia/Gonzaga	Maryland 83%
3 North Carolina v 14 Abilene Christian	North Carolina 94%
7 Alabama v 10 Colorado	Alabama 60%
2 LSU v 15 Stephen F. Austin	LSU >99%

South Carolina Region

Game	Our Pick
First Four: 16 UMBC v 16 East Tennessee St.	UMBC 51%
1 South Carolina v 16 UMBC/East Tennessee St.	South Carolina >99%
8 Michigan St. v 9 West Virginia	Michigan St. 57%
5 Tennessee v 12 James Madison	Tennessee 88%
4 Oklahoma v 13 Missouri St.	Oklahoma 93%
6 Oklahoma St. v 11 South Dakota St.	Oklahoma St. 76%
3 Duke v 14 Green Bay	Duke 95%
7 Villanova v 10 Florida St.	Villanova 63%
2 Ohio St. v 15 Florida Gulf Coast	Ohio St. 98%

USC Region

Game	Our Pick
1 USC v 16 Howard	USC >99%
8 Mississippi v 9 Arizona St.	Mississippi 57%
5 Illinois v 12 Fairfield	Illinois 86%
4 Baylor v 13 Saint Joseph's	Baylor 91%
First Four: 11 Montana St. v 11 South Florida	Montana St. 51%
6 Kentucky v 11 Montana St./South Florida	Kentucky 78%
3 UCLA v 14 Miami OH	UCLA 94%
7 Oregon v 10 Indiana	Oregon 61%
2 Michigan v 15 Hofstra	Michigan 98%

Any Matchup

Team1 Connecticut1 Iowa1 South Carolina1 USC2 LSU2 Michigan2 Ohio St.2 Texas3 Duke3 Louisville3 North Carolina3 UCLA4 Baylor4 Notre Dame4 Oklahoma4 Vanderbilt5 Illinois5 TCU5 Tennessee5 Washington6 Kentucky6 Maryland6 Nebraska6 Oklahoma St.7 Alabama7 N.C. State7 Oregon7 Villanova8 Miami FL8 Michigan St.8 Minnesota8 Mississippi9 Arizona St.9 California9 Clemson9 West Virginia10 Colorado10 Florida St.10 Indiana10 Kansas11 Columbia11 Florida11 Gonzaga11 Montana St.11 South Dakota St.11 South Florida12 Fairfield12 High Point12 James Madison12 Santa Clara13 Missouri St.13 Murray St.13 Saint Joseph's13 UNLV14 Abilene Christian14 Green Bay14 Miami OH14 Navy15 Florida Gulf Coast15 Hofstra15 Stephen F. Austin15 UC San Diego16 East Tennessee St.16 Fairleigh Dickinson16 Howard16 Southern16 Southern Indiana16 UMBCvs1 Connecticut1 Iowa1 South Carolina1 USC2 LSU2 Michigan2 Ohio St.2 Texas3 Duke3 Louisville3 North Carolina3 UCLA4 Baylor4 Notre Dame4 Oklahoma4 Vanderbilt5 Illinois5 TCU5 Tennessee5 Washington6 Kentucky6 Maryland6 Nebraska6 Oklahoma St.7 Alabama7 N.C. State7 Oregon7 Villanova8 Miami FL8 Michigan St.8 Minnesota8 Mississippi9 Arizona St.9 California9 Clemson9 West Virginia10 Colorado10 Florida St.10 Indiana10 Kansas11 Columbia11 Florida11 Gonzaga11 Montana St.11 South Dakota St.11 South Florida12 Fairfield12 High Point12 James Madison12 Santa Clara13 Missouri St.13 Murray St.13 Saint Joseph's13 UNLV14 Abilene Christian14 Green Bay14 Miami OH14 Navy15 Florida Gulf Coast15 Hofstra15 Stephen F. Austin15 UC San Diego16 East Tennessee St.16 Fairleigh Dickinson16 Howard16 Southern16 Southern Indiana16 UMBC