NFL Playoff Odds
2026 season · 10,000 simulations
Updated Sat, Oct 3 · 12:57 AM ET
Projected bracket How this works
The likeliest seven a conference; % is each team's chance to make it.
AFC
Every team
Chances in percent, ours beside ESPN FPI's. Tap a column to sort.
| Team | Playoff | FPI | Div | #1 | SB | Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bills3-0 | 86 | 97 | 70 | 28 | 10 | 2.8 |
 Jaguars2-1 | 82 | 92 | 66 | 17 | 10 | 3.1 |
 Seahawks2-1 | 80 | 75 | 46 | 21 | 14 | 3.5 |
 Vikings3-0 | 79 | 75 | 47 | 22 | 6 | 3.4 |
 Chiefs3-0 | 78 | 95 | 51 | 17 | 6 | 3.5 |
 49ers3-0 | 76 | 98 | 38 | 19 | 7 | 3.7 |
 Ravens2-1 | 69 | 89 | 44 | 11 | 5 | 3.7 |
 Lions2-1 | 64 | 76 | 29 | 12 | 5 | 4.1 |
 Broncos2-1 | 61 | 58 | 29 | 8 | 4 | 4.2 |
 Eagles2-1 | 58 | 38 | 48 | 5 | 3 | 3.5 |
 Bears2-1 | 57 | 72 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 4.5 |
 Rams1-2 | 54 | 56 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 4.9 |
 Bengals2-1 | 53 | 79 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 4.3 |
 Patriots1-2 | 53 | 39 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 4.5 |
 Raiders3-0 | 41 | 39 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 4.7 |
 Saints1-2 | 40 | 55 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 3.8 |
 Browns3-1 | 38 | 19 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 4.7 |
 Colts1-2 | 37 | 29 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 4.7 |
 Texans0-3 | 34 | 21 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 4.8 |
 Steelers2-2 | 32 | 24 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 4.8 |
 Giants2-1 | 30 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 4.1 |
 Panthers1-2 | 29 | 28 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 3.8 |
 Cowboys1-2 | 26 | 68 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 4.2 |
 Falcons1-2 | 26 | 14 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 4.1 |
 Buccaneers0-3 | 25 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 4.0 |
 Commanders1-2 | 22 | 19 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 4.4 |
 Packers1-2 | 21 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5.3 |
 Jets1-2 | 13 | 14 | 4 | <1 | <1 | 5.2 |
 Cardinals1-2 | 13 | 1 | 2 | <1 | <1 | 5.7 |
 Chargers0-3 | 11 | 6 | 3 | <1 | <1 | 5.3 |
 Dolphins0-3 | 6 | <1 | 2 | <1 | <1 | 5.3 |
 Titans0-3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | <1 | <1 | 5.3 |