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Ravens at Panthers

Week 11 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Ravens4-5
at
Panthers3-5

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Panthers by 3.6, the book by 1.5 — 2.1 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats says 48 to the book's 44.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

BAL 39%win chanceCAR 61%
GordStatsCAR by 3.661% to win · BAL 22–CAR 26
DraftKingsCAR -1.5O/U 44.5
Assumes outLamar JacksonRavens quarterback
ESPNCAR 68%win chance
Watch score44Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Ravens' red-zone offense (15th) meets Panthers' red-zone defense (31st).
  • Panthers' red-zone offense (7th) meets Ravens' red-zone defense (21st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Ravens Offense vs Panthers Defense

BAL offCAR def
EPA per play
18th-0.0128th+0.08
Pass EPA
19th+0.0525th+0.16
Run EPA
15th-0.0817th-0.08
Success rate
17th43%25th45%
Explosive plays
14th8%5th6%
Points per drive
21st1.9127th2.41
Red zone TD
15th59%31st75%
Third downs
15th39%29th48%
Sacks
24th8%32nd4%
Turnovers
13th10%19th10%

Ravens: 34.7 sec a snap (32nd fastest) · passes 6% less than expected

Panthers Offense vs Ravens Defense

CAR offBAL def
EPA per play
17th+0.0014th-0.01
Pass EPA
21st+0.0216th+0.06
Run EPA
12th-0.0616th-0.08
Success rate
21st42%17th44%
Explosive plays
13th8%9th7%
Points per drive
11th2.2124th2.36
Red zone TD
7th66%21st65%
Third downs
19th38%12th39%
Sacks
23rd8%20th5%
Turnovers
17th11%26th9%

Panthers: 28.9 sec a snap (1st fastest) · passes 8% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Ravens

  • RBDerrick Henry-0.13 EPA a carry · 3.9 yds · 154 carries · 27th of 38
  • WRZay Flowers+0.40 EPA a target · 69% caught · 61 targets · 35th in EPA
  • WRRashod Bateman+0.59 EPA a target · 66% caught · 29 targets · 12th in EPA

Panthers

  • QBBryce Young+0.03 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.9 · 308 dropbacks · 18th of 31
  • RBChuba Hubbard+0.05 EPA a carry · 4.6 yds · 122 carries · 6th of 38
  • WRTetairoa McMillan+0.44 EPA a target · 66% caught · 62 targets · 27th in EPA
  • TEDarren Waller+0.40 EPA a target · 67% caught · 33 targets · 33rd in EPA

Recent Form

Ravens

  • L10–33vs Jaguars−13
  • L10–36at Bills−22
  • L13–35vs Bengals−21
  • L10–13at Browns−4

Panthers

  • L21–26vs Broncos−1
  • L19–27at Packers−3
  • L13–43vs Buccaneers−32
  • W25–14at Eagles+11

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.