Our call on each NFL game is a predicted margin (shown as a spread), a total and a win chance, all from the GordStats ratings.
How it works
Margin: the home team's rating minus the visitor's, plus home field. Total: a second model rates how high- or low-scoring each team's games run; both teams' numbers are added to a typical game's total.
Win chance: on games it hadn't seen, the model typically missed by about 13 points. Allowing for misses that size (a normal distribution with a 13.12-point standard deviation), a 3-point favorite wins about 59% of the time and a 7-point favorite about 70%.
The record: each prediction is saved before kickoff and graded on that number. When we differ from the book's line (via ESPN) by 3 or more points, that's a lean, and only leans count against the spread or the total. Pushes don't count; 52.4% is break-even at -110.
Keep in mind
Predicting all 1,693 games of 2020-25 from earlier games only, it picked 63.7% of winners, and its 13.12-point typical miss beats the 14.22 of a guess that knows only which team is at home. It knows nothing about injuries, weather or quarterback news.
When it updates
Four times a day, around 5:30 and 11:30 AM and PM Eastern, with every newly finished game and the latest lines.
For the curious
During a game, the schedule and each game page also show ESPN's live win probability, labeled as ESPN's; ours stays the number we set before kickoff.