A team's GordStats NFL rating is how many points better than an average team it would be on a neutral field: a +7 team would be a touchdown favorite over an average one.
How it works
Using every NFL game since 2014, playoffs included, the model finds the one number per team that best fits all the final margins at once, plus a home-field edge (under 2 points lately). Because every team is rated together, beating a good team counts more than beating a bad one.
Recent games count most: a game counts half as much after 180 days. A strong pull toward average keeps one blowout from swinging a team (ridge regression). The settings were tuned on 2015-19 and locked before testing on 2020-25.
Next to ours is ESPN's FPI, its own points-better-than-average rating, split into offense, defense and special teams. The Odds tab shows ESPN's own season simulations.
Keep in mind
It sees final scores only, so a quarterback injury or trade counts only once it shows up in results. Early in the season the ratings are mostly last year's.
When it updates
Four times a day, around 5:30 and 11:30 AM and PM Eastern, with every newly finished game.