Playoff odds are how often a team makes the playoffs, earns a bye and wins the title when we play the rest of the season out 10,000 times (a Monte Carlo simulation).
How it works
Each game left is decided at random by the win chances on the predictions page. Each simulated season also nudges every rating a little, more for games further off, since the ratings are uncertain too.
College: 12 teams. The ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC champions are in, plus the best-ranked team from the other conferences, Notre Dame if it ranks in the top 12, and at-large teams. Seeds go straight by ranking; the top 4 get byes. In place of the committee, we rank teams by how their wins compare with what an average top-25 team would win on the same schedule (strength of record), plus a little for rating.
NFL: seven teams per conference, the four division winners seeded first; only the 1 seed gets a bye. Ties are broken by head-to-head, then division and conference record; past that, a coin flip.
Keep in mind
The real committee can differ from ours. Injuries aren't modeled. The FPI column is ESPN's own odds.
When it updates
Four times a day, around 5:30 and 11:30 AM and PM Eastern; the odds move only when games finish.
For the curious
The rating nudges were sized so the spread of each team's win totals matches real seasons since 2015. Conference title games are played between the two best conference records. Once the real playoff matchups are set, those are used.