Each week the model makes one bet and one three-leg parlay where it disagrees most with the sportsbook, and we keep an honest record of both.
How it works
The picks: the single bet is the game where our spread differs most from the book's, by 3 to 10 points in college or 3 to 6 in the NFL (bigger gaps usually mean news the model can't see). The parlay takes the next three biggest gaps, spreads or totals. Picks lock at 9 AM Eastern on the week's first game day.
Units: each bet is one unit at standard -110 odds, so a win pays 0.91 and a loss costs 1. A parlay loses if any leg loses; a pushed leg drops out.
The closing line: each pick is also checked against the last line before kickoff. Beating it (closing line value, CLV), like taking -3 on a team that closed at -5, is the best sign a bet was smart, win or lose. "Line moved our way" counts how often it moved toward us after our first look.
Keep in mind
In testing (2020-25), the model's college disagreements of 3+ points won 49.3% against the spread, below the 52.4% needed to profit. Not gambling advice.
When it updates
Graded four times a day, around 5:30 and 11:30 AM and PM Eastern, as games finish.