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Jaguars at Giants

Week 11 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Jaguars6-2
at
Giants5-3-1

Sun, Nov 22 · 4:25 PM ET · CBS

MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Jaguars by 8.2, the book by 6 — 2.2 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

JAX 73%win chanceNYG 27%
GordStatsJAX by 8.273% to win · JAX 27–NYG 18
DraftKingsJAX -6O/U 44.5
ESPNJAX 78%win chance
Watch score83Winning teams

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Jaguars' red-zone offense (8th) meets Giants' red-zone defense (32nd).
  • Jaguars' run defense (1st) meets Giants' run game (20th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Jaguars Offense vs Giants Defense

JAX offNYG def
EPA per play
4th+0.1311th-0.02
Pass EPA
3rd+0.2411th+0.02
Run EPA
6th-0.0114th-0.09
Success rate
9th47%13th43%
Explosive plays
4th10%13th8%
Points per drive
4th2.7711th1.94
Red zone TD
8th65%32nd80%
Third downs
3rd47%15th39%
Sacks
11th5%22nd5%
Turnovers
6th8%17th11%

Jaguars: 32.4 sec a snap (20th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

Giants Offense vs Jaguars Defense

NYG offJAX def
EPA per play
16th+0.023rd-0.15
Pass EPA
13th+0.144th-0.07
Run EPA
20th-0.131st-0.23
Success rate
24th41%5th41%
Explosive plays
19th8%3rd5%
Points per drive
18th2.012nd1.48
Red zone TD
12th63%4th41%
Third downs
12th41%7th34%
Sacks
25th8%19th6%
Turnovers
20th12%3rd17%

Giants: 32.7 sec a snap (24th fastest) · passes 4% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Jaguars

  • QBTrevor Lawrence+0.30 EPA a dropback · CPOE +3.2 · 241 dropbacks · 3rd of 31
  • RBBhayshul Tuten-0.02 EPA a carry · 4.4 yds · 112 carries · 13th of 38
  • WRParker Washington+0.44 EPA a target · 54% caught · 54 targets · 26th in EPA
  • TEBrenton Strange+0.40 EPA a target · 81% caught · 37 targets · 34th in EPA

Giants

  • QBJameis Winston-0.02 EPA a dropback · CPOE -6.1 · 172 dropbacks · 22nd of 31
  • RBCam Skattebo-0.08 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 110 carries · 19th of 38
  • WRMalachi Fields+0.69 EPA a target · 65% caught · 31 targets · 5th in EPA

Recent Form

Jaguars

  • W33–10at Ravens+13
  • W42–7vs Colts+28
  • L31–34vs Texans−6
  • W19–17vs Eagles−3

Giants

  • L21–24vs Commanders−5
  • W19–11at Eagles+9
  • W27–21at Texans+17
  • L27–34vs Saints−6

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.