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What the Chiefs Need
2026 NFL playoffs · 10,000 simulations
Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 6:27 PM ET
87% to make the playoffs
6-2 · AFC West · Team page
If It Wins Out, or Doesn't How this works
Win out
>99%
2% likely
One more loss
>99%
7% likely
Two or more
86%
91% likely
Winning out is rare in our runs (164 of 10,000), so its odds there are rough.
Games Left
| Game | Win | If W | If L | Only L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| at FalconsSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | 63% | 93% | 78% | – |
| vs CardinalsSun, Nov 22 | 83% | 93% | 73% | – |
| at BillsThu, Nov 26 | 37% | 96% | 82% | >99% |
| at RamsThu, Dec 3 | 44% | 95% | 82% | >99% |
| at BengalsSun, Dec 13 | 48% | 96% | 79% | – |
| vs PatriotsMon, Dec 21 | 55% | 97% | 76% | – |
| vs 49ersSun, Dec 27 | 49% | 95% | 80% | >99% |
| at ChargersSun, Jan 3 | 59% | 94% | 75% | – |
| vs RaidersSun, Jan 10 | 72% | 93% | 71% | – |
Division Title
| Finish | Chance | Playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Wins the AFC West | 39% | >99% |
| Does not win it | 61% | 79% |
Who to Root For
This Week
- Lions over Patriots89% if DET wins, 86% if NE does · DET 53% to win · Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET+3pts
Later This Season
- Jets over Patriots90% if NYJ wins, 86% if NE does · NYJ 29% to win · Sun, Dec 27+4pts
- Jaguars over Texans89% if JAX wins, 86% if HOU does · JAX 61% to win · Sun, Dec 20+3pts
- Broncos over Patriots89% if DEN wins, 86% if NE does · DEN 44% to win · Sun, Jan 3+3pts
Road to the Title
| Round | Chance |
|---|---|
| Makes the playoffs | 87% |
| Reaches the divisional round | 47% |
| Reaches the conference title game | 21% |
| Reaches the Super Bowl | 10% |
| Wins the Super Bowl | 5% |