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Cardinals at Chiefs

Week 11 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Cardinals3-6
at
Chiefs6-2

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Chiefs by 12.4, the book by 14 — 1.6 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

ARI 17%win chanceKC 83%
GordStatsKC by 12.483% to win · ARI 16–KC 29
DraftKingsKC -14O/U 42.5
Assumes outGardner MinshewCardinals quarterback
ESPNKC 85%win chance
Watch score51

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Chiefs' red-zone defense (3rd) meets Cardinals' red-zone offense (30th).
  • Chiefs' ball security (5th) meets Cardinals' takeaway defense (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Cardinals Offense vs Chiefs Defense

ARI offKC def
EPA per play
21st-0.0216th+0.00
Pass EPA
23rd+0.0017th+0.06
Run EPA
13th-0.075th-0.18
Success rate
14th44%6th41%
Explosive plays
31st5%10th7%
Points per drive
24th1.826th1.77
Red zone TD
30th43%3rd38%
Third downs
16th38%10th37%
Sacks
15th6%31st5%
Turnovers
8th8%12th12%

Cardinals: 32.4 sec a snap (22nd fastest) · passes 0% less than expected

Chiefs Offense vs Cardinals Defense

KC offARI def
EPA per play
5th+0.1327th+0.08
Pass EPA
10th+0.1631st+0.29
Run EPA
2nd+0.082nd-0.20
Success rate
4th49%19th44%
Explosive plays
5th10%14th8%
Points per drive
9th2.4030th2.62
Red zone TD
10th63%22nd67%
Third downs
9th42%20th41%
Sacks
6th4%15th7%
Turnovers
5th7%30th7%

Chiefs: 31.5 sec a snap (11th fastest) · passes 6% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Cardinals

  • QBJacoby Brissett-0.06 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.0 · 289 dropbacks · 25th of 31
  • RBTyler Allgeier-0.08 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 85 carries · 20th of 38

Chiefs

  • QBPatrick Mahomes+0.17 EPA a dropback · CPOE +2.3 · 264 dropbacks · 12th of 31
  • RBKenneth Walker III+0.08 EPA a carry · 5.5 yds · 149 carries · 4th of 38
  • TETravis Kelce+0.66 EPA a target · 68% caught · 41 targets · 8th in EPA

Recent Form

Cardinals

  • L3–17at Seahawks−3
  • W33–30at Cowboys+8
  • L16–30vs Broncos−9
  • W18–16at Rams+13

Chiefs

  • W35–12vs Jets+15
  • L24–28at Broncos−3
  • L3–20at Seahawks−14
  • W22–6vs Chargers+10

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.