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Patriots vs Lions

Week 10 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 6:27 PM ET

Patriots5-4
vs
Lions6-2

Sun, Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ET · Fox

Neutral site · FC Bayern Munich Stadium · Munich, Germany

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Lions by 1, the book by 2.5 — 1.5 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

NE 47%win chanceDET 53%
GordStatsDET by 153% to win · NE 24–DET 25
DraftKingsDET -2.5O/U 49.5
ESPNDET 53%win chance
Watch score78Toss-up · Winning teams

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Lions' ball security (2nd) meets Patriots' takeaway defense (28th).
  • Patriots' big-play offense (8th) meets Lions' big-play defense (29th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Patriots Offense vs Lions Defense

NE offDET def
EPA per play
12th+0.0529th+0.10
Pass EPA
9th+0.1728th+0.18
Run EPA
24th-0.1512th-0.13
Success rate
10th46%22nd45%
Explosive plays
8th9%29th10%
Points per drive
15th2.1021st2.33
Red zone TD
19th56%24th67%
Third downs
11th42%26th45%
Sacks
18th6%7th8%
Turnovers
32nd20%23rd10%

Patriots: 32.4 sec a snap (21st fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

Lions Offense vs Patriots Defense

DET offNE def
EPA per play
7th+0.0817th+0.02
Pass EPA
7th+0.2024th+0.16
Run EPA
14th-0.078th-0.16
Success rate
3rd49%11th43%
Explosive plays
3rd10%23rd9%
Points per drive
5th2.7416th2.16
Red zone TD
14th60%14th57%
Third downs
21st37%11th38%
Sacks
20th6%5th8%
Turnovers
2nd6%28th8%

Lions: 31.8 sec a snap (16th fastest) · passes 6% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Patriots

  • QBDrake Maye+0.22 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.1 · 291 dropbacks · 7th of 31
  • RBRhamondre Stevenson-0.03 EPA a carry · 4.1 yds · 97 carries · 15th of 38
  • WRDeMario Douglas+0.57 EPA a target · 68% caught · 41 targets · 15th in EPA
  • TEHunter Henry+0.63 EPA a target · 86% caught · 36 targets · 9th in EPA

Lions

  • QBJared Goff+0.19 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.2 · 272 dropbacks · 9th of 31
  • RBJahmyr Gibbs-0.01 EPA a carry · 4.9 yds · 163 carries · 11th of 38
  • WRJameson Williams+0.55 EPA a target · 61% caught · 44 targets · 17th in EPA
  • TESam LaPorta+0.59 EPA a target · 67% caught · 43 targets · 13th in EPA

Recent Form

Patriots

  • L27–45vs Packers−21
  • W24–19at Dolphins−2
  • L24–30at Bears−7
  • W26–19vs Jets−3

Lions

  • W19–9at Dolphins+4
  • W19–15vs Vikings+4
  • W20–17vs Packers0
  • W45–21at Cardinals+20

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.