New England Patriots
Updated Wed, Sep 30 · 7:15 PM ET
1–2 · 10th of 32
Rated +2.4 points vs an average team · AFC East
Projected record
| Source | W–L | How |
|---|---|---|
| GordStats | 9.1–7.9 | Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left |
| ESPN FPI | 8.3–8.7 | ESPN's simulation of the full schedule |
Advanced
Offense EPA/play-0.1227th of 32
Defense EPA/play-0.057th of 32
Success rate42.4%21st of 32
Explosive plays6.3%26th of 32
3rd down32.5%29th of 32
Red zone TD14.3%32nd of 32
Giveaway rate26.7%32nd of 32
Takeaway rate9.7%19th of 32
EPA is opponent-adjusted through Week 3, garbage time out; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.
Schedule
| Opponent | Date | Result | Expected | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 at Seahawks | 9 Sep | L 10–13 | -6.4 | — |
2 vs Steelers | 20 Sep | W 20–3 | +5.7 | — |
3 at Jaguars | 27 Sep | L 6–35 | -0.9 | — |
4 at Bills | 4 Oct | proj 21–26 | -4.3 | 37% |
5 vs Raiders | 11 Oct | proj 24–17 | +6.9 | 70% |
6 vs Jets | 18 Oct | proj 25–16 | +9.2 | 76% |
7 at Bears | 22 Oct | proj 21–23 | -2.2 | 43% |
8 at Dolphins | 1 Nov | proj 23–18 | +5.7 | 67% |
9 vs Packers | 8 Nov | proj 24–19 | +5.3 | 66% |
10 vs Lions | 15 Nov | proj 24–24 | +0.1 | 50% |
12 at Chargers | 29 Nov | proj 21–19 | +2.5 | 58% |
| 13vs Bills | 6 Dec | proj 23–24 | -0.8 | 47% |
14 vs Vikings | 10 Dec | proj 20–19 | +1.1 | 53% |
15 at Chiefs | 21 Dec | proj 19–21 | -2.4 | 43% |
| 16at Jets | 27 Dec | proj 24–18 | +5.8 | 67% |
17 vs Broncos | 3 Jan | proj 21–19 | +2.1 | 56% |
| 18vs Dolphins | 10 Jan | proj 25–16 | +9.1 | 76% |
Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff. Win is the chance of winning a game still to play. How it has done: predictions.