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Raiders at Patriots

Week 5 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 19 · 5:37 AM ET

Raiders3-1 going in
17–45Final
Patriots2-2 going in

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA

The Call How this works

GordStats had Patriots by 7✓, the book by 3.5: a lean to Patriots -3.5✓.

On the total, GordStats said 42 to the book's 45.5: a lean to the Under✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

LV 30%win chanceNE 70%
GordStatsNE by 770% to win · LV 17–NE 25
BookNE -3.5O/U 45.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Raiders' takeaway defense (6th) meets Patriots' ball security (32nd).
  • Patriots' run defense (14th) meets Raiders' run game (27th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Raiders Offense vs Patriots Defense

LV offNE def
EPA per play
14th+0.056th-0.06
Pass EPA
5th+0.2113th+0.02
Run EPA
27th-0.2114th-0.11
Success rate
14th44%9th42%
Explosive plays
20th7%12th7%
Points per drive
8th2.505th1.79
Red zone TD
18th54%9th50%
Third downs
8th43%11th37%
Sacks
4th3%15th7%
Turnovers
15th9%16th11%

Raiders: 32.5 sec a snap (20th fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

Patriots Offense vs Raiders Defense

NE offLV def
EPA per play
12th+0.0627th+0.08
Pass EPA
7th+0.1928th+0.22
Run EPA
22nd-0.1610th-0.14
Success rate
11th46%27th47%
Explosive plays
13th9%30th10%
Points per drive
16th2.0825th2.45
Red zone TD
22nd53%24th68%
Third downs
12th42%22nd42%
Sacks
9th5%13th7%
Turnovers
32nd21%6th15%

Patriots: 31.3 sec a snap (12th fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Raiders

  • QBKirk Cousins+0.21 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.8 · 204 dropbacks · 11th of 33
  • RBAshton Jeanty-0.26 EPA a carry · 3.4 yds · 84 carries · 38th in EPA
  • TEBrock Bowers+0.42 EPA a target · 64% caught · 42 targets · 37th in EPA
  • WRTre Tucker+0.44 EPA a target · 66% caught · 32 targets · 34th in EPA

Patriots

  • QBDrake Maye+0.22 EPA a dropback · CPOE +5.0 · 199 dropbacks · 7th of 33
  • RBRhamondre Stevenson-0.03 EPA a carry · 3.9 yds · 66 carries · 18th in EPA
  • WRDeMario Douglas+0.51 EPA a target · 70% caught · 27 targets · 26th in EPA
  • TEHunter Henry+0.50 EPA a target · 79% caught · 24 targets · 27th in EPA

Recent Form

Raiders

  • L27-30vs Chiefs+1
  • W35-27at Saints+12
  • W26-14at Chargers+18
  • W27-13vs Dolphins—

Patriots

  • W29-26at Bills+7
  • L6-35at Jaguars−28
  • W20-3vs Steelers+11
  • L10-13at Seahawks—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.