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What the Patriots Need
2026 NFL playoffs · 10,000 simulations
Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 6:27 PM ET
65% to make the playoffs
5-4 · AFC East · Team page
If It Wins Out, or Doesn't How this works
Win out
>99%
3% likely
One more loss
>99%
9% likely
Two or more
60%
89% likely
Winning out is rare in our runs (255 of 10,000), so its odds there are rough.
Games Left
| Game | Win | If W | If L | Only L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LionsSun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET | 47% | 80% | 52% | >99% |
| at ChargersSun, Nov 29 | 66% | 75% | 44% | – |
| vs BillsSun, Dec 6 | 41% | 82% | 53% | >99% |
| vs VikingsThu, Dec 10 | 65% | 79% | 49% | >99% |
| at ChiefsMon, Dec 21 | 45% | 83% | 49% | >99% |
| at JetsSun, Dec 27 | 71% | 75% | 40% | – |
| vs BroncosSun, Jan 3 | 56% | 81% | 48% | >99% |
| vs DolphinsSun, Jan 10 | 76% | 74% | 42% | – |
Division Title
| Finish | Chance | Playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Wins the AFC East | 11% | >99% |
| Does not win it | 89% | 60% |
Who to Root For
This Week
- Falcons over Chiefs68% if ATL wins, 63% if KC does · ATL 37% to win · Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET+4pts
Later This Season
- Jaguars over Texans68% if JAX wins, 60% if HOU does · JAX 61% to win · Sun, Dec 20+7pts
- Colts over Browns68% if IND wins, 62% if CLE does · IND 51% to win · Sun, Jan 3+6pts
- Colts over Texans69% if IND wins, 63% if HOU does · IND 31% to win · Thu, Nov 19+6pts
Road to the Title
| Round | Chance |
|---|---|
| Makes the playoffs | 65% |
| Reaches the divisional round | 31% |
| Reaches the conference title game | 14% |
| Reaches the Super Bowl | 6% |
| Wins the Super Bowl | 3% |