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AFC East Race

2026 season · 10,000 simulations

Updated Thu, Nov 12 · 11:46 PM ET

← Every team's playoff odds

The Race iHow this works

Team	Division	Wild Card	Playoffs
Bills7-1 · 0-1 div	89%	10%	98%
Patriots5-4 · 3-0 div	11%	53%	65%

Under 1%: Dolphins, Jets.

Games That Decide It iHow this works

The games left whose results move the race most, and each contender's chance either way.

1. 1Bills at PatriotsSun, Dec 6 · BUF 59%

   Division Chance	If BUF Wins	If NE Wins
   Bills	98%	75%
   Patriots	2%	25%

2. 2Chiefs at BillsThu, Nov 26 · BUF 63%

   Division Chance	If KC Wins	If BUF Wins
   Bills	79%	94%
   Patriots	20%	6%

3. 3Bears at BillsSat, Dec 19 · BUF 62%

   Division Chance	If CHI Wins	If BUF Wins
   Bills	80%	94%
   Patriots	20%	6%

4. 4Bills at DolphinsSun, Jan 3 · BUF 86%

   Division Chance	If BUF Wins	If MIA Wins
   Bills	93%	76%
   Patriots	7%	24%

5. 5Bills at PackersSun, Dec 13 · BUF 58%

   Division Chance	If BUF Wins	If GB Wins
   Bills	94%	81%
   Patriots	6%	18%

6. 6Bills at BroncosFri, Dec 25 · BUF 58%

   Division Chance	If BUF Wins	If DEN Wins
   Bills	94%	82%
   Patriots	6%	18%