A title race page shows how often each team plays for its conference title (college) or wins its division (NFL) in the same 10,000 simulated seasons as our playoff odds.
How It Works
College: the two best conference records meet in the title game (the Sun Belt's two division winners). If Champ is the playoff chance in the seasons the team won the title: a lock for a power conference's champion, not for the others'.
Games that decide it sorts the seasons by each game left (a conditional probability) and lists the ones that move the race most, weighted toward games that could go either way. The likeliest title games count which pairs met most often.
Keep in Mind
Our ties go to head-to-head among the tied teams, then our ratings. The conferences use longer lists (common opponents, outside rankings), so a close tie can go the other way. A figure from fewer than 100 seasons is left blank.
When It Updates
With the playoff odds, four times a day, around 5:30 and 11:30 AM and PM Eastern; they move only when games finish.