Each contender's page shows how its playoff chance changes with the games left: its own, its title race and everyone else's.
How It Works
It uses the same 10,000 simulated seasons as the playoff odds. We sort them by what happened: the seasons where a team won a game against the ones where it lost (a conditional probability). If W and If L are its chances in each; Only L counts seasons where that game was its only loss from here.
Win out and in appears only when the team made the field in at least 99.5% of at least 300 seasons where it won every game left, title game included. Who to root for splits the same seasons by every other game and lists the results that help most, weighted toward games that could go either way. The week's playoff games add those swings up across every contender.
Keep in Mind
Chances come from simulations, so a figure based on fewer than 100 seasons is left blank, and a swing elsewhere is listed only when it is too big to be chance. The committee stand-in is the playoff odds' own.
When It Updates
With the playoff odds, four times a day, around 5:30 and 11:30 AM and PM Eastern; they move only when games finish.
For the Curious
The swings add back up: a team's chance now is its chance with a win times the win chance, plus its chance with a loss times the loss chance, exactly, because both come from the same seasons.