Stakes show how much next week's game matters: each team's playoff chance if it wins, against its chance if it loses.
How it works
We split the power rankings' simulated seasons by how next week's game went. The swing is the gap between the two chances, in percentage points.
The game of the week is the one expected to move the playoff race most: big swings for both teams, in a game that could go either way.
The playoff picture is plain arithmetic, not simulation. Clinched and eliminated hold in every possible finish, even if every team chasing wins out and every tie goes against the team in question. Magic is the number of wins that clinches a spot whatever anyone else does. Win and in means a head-to-head win this week clinches.
The odds chart follows each team's playoff and title odds week by week.
Keep in mind
A swing is about next week's game only; the weeks after still matter. The simulated odds never say 100% until the arithmetic clinches it, or 0% until it eliminates.
When it updates
With the power rankings. NFL stakes appear once the previous week's stats are final, usually midweek.
For the curious
The game of the week scores each game by the two swings added together, times how close it is to a coin flip: 2p(1-p) for a win chance p, largest at 50/50.