The power rankings rate each roster by the points its best lineup should score from here, then play the rest of the season out 10,000 times (a Monte Carlo simulation) for playoff and title odds.
How it works
Projections: a player's preseason projection is 80% his average draft position (ADP) turned into points and 20% our usage model. Once games are played, his real points per game count too, with the preseason projection worth five games.
Each simulated week: every team starts its best projected lineup, and scores vary around each projection. Injuries carry over: a known one lasts until ESPN's expected return, teammates absorb the work, and a player's first games back are projected a little lower.
Wins: each week counts twice, once for the head-to-head game and once against the league median. Weeks already played are locked in.
Rating: our projected points per week, with 100 the league average. The published Rating averages ours with the FantasyPros League Analyzer. Luck is wins above what your scores would have earned playing every team every week (all-play).
Keep in mind
The odds are only as good as the projections, which can't see a breakout coming.
When it updates
Four times a day, around 5:30 and 11:30 AM and PM Eastern, and again as soon as a week's stats are final.
For the curious
Running backs, receivers and tight ends are blended half-and-half with Sleeper's recent weekly projections. Each run first draws every player's true scoring rate, since we can't be sure of it, then each week's score around it (a gamma distribution). New injuries in the simulation last three weeks on average. Your own league's page runs the same model in your browser, without the FantasyPros blend.