A player on the injury report counts at his projection times his chance to play, and an injury carries into the weeks ahead, for him and his teammates.
How it works
Chance to play: for a Questionable or Doubtful player, how often similar players played, from the official injury reports of 2016-25, matched by role (from snap share) and last practice. A Questionable starter who practiced fully played 89% of the time; a backup who didn't practice, 30%.
How long he's out: ESPN's expected return date, or, without one, four weeks for injured reserve and one for Out.
Next man up: teammates behind him pick up part of his points, by shares measured in 2019-25; the next running back up gets about a third.
Back from injury: a returning player is projected 8% lower after one missed game, and 17% then 12% lower in his first two games after a longer absence.
PT, Dr and News link to a recent post on X about his injury from physical therapists, a former team doctor or national insiders.
Keep in mind
A late scratch beats any model. All of this is for NFL leagues; college players count Yahoo's injury tags at fixed rates.
When it updates
Four times a day, around 5:30 and 11:30 AM and PM Eastern, with ESPN's latest injury list and posts.