Every player gets a weekly projection from us and from Sleeper, ESPN and FantasyPros, and ours add up to a live win chance for each matchup.
How it works
GordStats projection: a player's season projection, raised or lowered up to 30% by how many points the betting market expects his team to score (its implied total) against the week's average. A defense goes the other way.
Injuries: Out and IR count zero. Questionable and Doubtful players count their projection times their chance to play (the "plays" pill; see injuries).
Consensus averages Sleeper, ESPN and FantasyPros; the gray Pts number averages all four.
Win chance: from each lineup's projected total and how much it could vary (a normal distribution). Live, a player's expected final is his points so far plus his projection for the rest of his game.
Accuracy: each source's average miss and bias (running high or low) on finished weeks, ours only from numbers saved before kickoff.
Keep in mind
One week is noisy; judge sources over many. The college league compares ours with Yahoo's only, and adjusts by our predicted score for each game, not the market's.
When it updates
Four times a day, around 5:30 and 11:30 AM and PM Eastern, and every 10 minutes from half an hour before kickoff while games are on; live scores refresh every minute.