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Chiefs at Falcons

Week 10 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Chiefs6-2
at
Falcons3-6

Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Chiefs by 4.3, the book by 3 — 1.3 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats says 43 to the book's 47.5: a lean to the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

KC 63%win chanceATL 37%
GordStatsKC by 4.363% to win · KC 24–ATL 19
DraftKingsKC -3O/U 47.5
ESPNKC 78%win chance
Watch score51Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Chiefs' big-play offense (5th) meets Falcons' big-play defense (27th).
  • Falcons' pass protection (12th) meets Chiefs' pass rush (31st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Chiefs Offense vs Falcons Defense

KC offATL def
EPA per play
5th+0.1312th-0.01
Pass EPA
10th+0.1614th+0.06
Run EPA
2nd+0.0822nd-0.07
Success rate
4th49%18th44%
Explosive plays
5th10%27th10%
Points per drive
9th2.4015th2.13
Red zone TD
10th63%23rd67%
Third downs
9th42%24th43%
Sacks
6th4%18th6%
Turnovers
5th7%21st10%

Chiefs: 31.5 sec a snap (11th fastest) · passes 6% more than expected

Falcons Offense vs Chiefs Defense

ATL offKC def
EPA per play
25th-0.0816th+0.00
Pass EPA
29th-0.1417th+0.06
Run EPA
8th-0.025th-0.18
Success rate
15th44%6th41%
Explosive plays
16th8%10th7%
Points per drive
23rd1.896th1.77
Red zone TD
13th62%3rd38%
Third downs
27th35%10th37%
Sacks
12th6%31st5%
Turnovers
27th16%12th12%

Falcons: 34.4 sec a snap (31st fastest) · passes 6% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Chiefs

  • QBPatrick Mahomes+0.17 EPA a dropback · CPOE +2.3 · 264 dropbacks · 12th of 31
  • RBKenneth Walker III+0.08 EPA a carry · 5.5 yds · 149 carries · 4th of 38
  • TETravis Kelce+0.66 EPA a target · 68% caught · 41 targets · 8th in EPA

Falcons

  • QBMichael Penix Jr.-0.02 EPA a dropback · CPOE -3.7 · 179 dropbacks · 23rd of 31
  • RBBijan Robinson-0.02 EPA a carry · 5.3 yds · 157 carries · 14th of 38
  • WRDrake London+0.45 EPA a target · 70% caught · 56 targets · 25th in EPA

Recent Form

Chiefs

  • W35–12vs Jets+15
  • L24–28at Broncos−3
  • L3–20at Seahawks−14
  • W22–6vs Chargers+10

Falcons

  • L17–34vs Bengals−13
  • L0–16at Buccaneers−14
  • W29–20vs 49ers+13
  • L23–31vs Bears−7

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.