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Colts at Texans

Week 11 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Colts2-7
at
Texans3-5

Thu, Nov 19 · 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video

Reliant Stadium · Houston, TX

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Texans by 6.5, the book by 10: a lean to Colts +10.

On the total, GordStats says 48 to the book's 44.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

IND 31%win chanceHOU 69%
GordStatsHOU by 6.569% to win · IND 21–HOU 27
DraftKingsHOU -10O/U 44.5
ESPNHOU 75%win chance
Watch score53

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Texans' ball security (1st) meets Colts' takeaway defense (31st).
  • Texans' pass rush (2nd) meets Colts' pass protection (22nd).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Colts Offense vs Texans Defense

IND offHOU def
EPA per play
29th-0.1019th+0.03
Pass EPA
30th-0.1721st+0.11
Run EPA
5th+0.0021st-0.08
Success rate
19th42%8th42%
Explosive plays
21st7%28th10%
Points per drive
26th1.8019th2.23
Red zone TD
16th58%25th67%
Third downs
22nd37%14th39%
Sacks
22nd7%2nd9%
Turnovers
30th17%25th9%

Colts: 31.8 sec a snap (14th fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

Texans Offense vs Colts Defense

HOU offIND def
EPA per play
8th+0.0723rd+0.05
Pass EPA
6th+0.2020th+0.10
Run EPA
25th-0.1632nd+0.01
Success rate
12th44%10th43%
Explosive plays
12th8%31st11%
Points per drive
8th2.4625th2.40
Red zone TD
17th58%18th62%
Third downs
14th40%5th33%
Sacks
10th5%16th6%
Turnovers
1st5%31st6%

Texans: 31.2 sec a snap (10th fastest) · passes 2% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Colts

  • QBDaniel Jones-0.18 EPA a dropback · CPOE -4.6 · 313 dropbacks · 29th of 31
  • RBJonathan Taylor-0.08 EPA a carry · 4.1 yds · 160 carries · 21st of 38
  • WRJosh Downs+0.34 EPA a target · 60% caught · 53 targets · 40th in EPA

Texans

  • QBC.J. Stroud+0.21 EPA a dropback · CPOE +1.4 · 277 dropbacks · 8th of 31
  • RBWoody Marks-0.14 EPA a carry · 3.7 yds · 86 carries · 28th of 38
  • WRNico Collins+0.67 EPA a target · 72% caught · 39 targets · 6th in EPA
  • WRKayshon Boutte+0.44 EPA a target · 72% caught · 25 targets · 28th in EPA

Recent Form

Colts

  • L23–27vs Cowboys−4
  • L7–42at Jaguars−28
  • L10–16at Vikings0
  • L20–26vs Titans−15

Texans

  • W44–22at Chargers+18
  • L21–27vs Giants−17
  • W34–31vs Jaguars+6
  • W26–3at Titans+17

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.