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Patriots at Dolphins

Week 8 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Patriots4-3 going in
24–19Final
Dolphins1-5 going in

Sun, Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET · CBS

Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL

The Call How this works

GordStats had Patriots by 6.9✓, the book by 7 — they agree, no lean.

NE 70%win chanceMIA 30%
GordStatsNE by 6.970% to win · NE 25–MIA 18
BookNE -7O/U 41.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Patriots' passing game (6th) meets Dolphins' pass defense (32nd).
  • Patriots' pass rush (6th) meets Dolphins' pass protection (31st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense

NE offMIA def
EPA per play
9th+0.0732nd+0.18
Pass EPA
6th+0.2232nd+0.34
Run EPA
24th-0.1530th+0.01
Success rate
10th47%32nd53%
Explosive plays
13th8%27th10%
Points per drive
14th2.1332nd2.78
Red zone TD
23rd52%19th64%
Third downs
12th41%32nd52%
Sacks
14th6%28th4%
Turnovers
31st18%25th9%

Patriots: 32.6 sec a snap (22nd fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense

MIA offNE def
EPA per play
26th-0.0711th-0.03
Pass EPA
25th-0.0117th+0.08
Run EPA
22nd-0.1310th-0.14
Success rate
29th39%9th42%
Explosive plays
23rd7%13th8%
Points per drive
28th1.7711th1.98
Red zone TD
18th56%12th54%
Third downs
10th43%11th39%
Sacks
31st9%6th8%
Turnovers
23rd14%19th10%

Dolphins: 33.5 sec a snap (26th fastest) · passes 8% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Patriots

  • QBDrake Maye+0.27 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.3 · 254 dropbacks · 6th of 32
  • RBRhamondre Stevenson-0.03 EPA a carry · 4.0 yds · 91 carries · 16th in EPA
  • WRDeMario Douglas+0.63 EPA a target · 73% caught · 33 targets · 14th in EPA
  • TEHunter Henry+0.58 EPA a target · 85% caught · 33 targets · 15th in EPA

Dolphins

  • QBMalik Willis-0.03 EPA a dropback · CPOE -7.2 · 183 dropbacks · 24th of 32
  • RBOllie Gordon II-0.03 EPA a carry · 4.4 yds · 83 carries · 15th in EPA
  • TEGreg Dulcich+0.43 EPA a target · 73% caught · 22 targets · 32nd in EPA

Recent Form

Patriots

  • L24–30at Bears−7
  • W26–19vs Jets−3
  • W45–17vs Raiders+21
  • W29–26at Bills+7

Dolphins

  • W28–25at Jets+5
  • L24–31vs Bengals−4
  • L10–15at Vikings+5
  • L10–24vs Chiefs−9

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.