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Patriots at Jaguars

Week 3 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 5 · 9:46 PM ET

Patriots1-1 going in
6–35Final
Jaguars1-1 going in

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL

The Call How this works

GordStats had Jaguars by 0.9✓, the book by 3 — they agree, no lean.

NE 47%win chanceJAX 53%
GordStatsJAX by 0.953% to win · NE 21–JAX 22
BookJAX -3O/U 45.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Jaguars' takeaway defense (1st) meets Patriots' ball security (32nd).
  • Jaguars' run game (4th) meets Patriots' run defense (29th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Patriots Offense vs Jaguars Defense

NE offJAX def
EPA per play
20th-0.032nd-0.13
Pass EPA
22nd+0.033rd-0.10
Run EPA
21st-0.137th-0.17
Success rate
15th45%11th42%
Explosive plays
23rd7%5th7%
Points per drive
31st1.412nd1.43
Red zone TD
31st40%2nd29%
Third downs
22nd35%5th33%
Sacks
19th7%13th6%
Turnovers
32nd24%1st22%

Patriots: 31.0 sec a snap (7th fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

Jaguars Offense vs Patriots Defense

JAX offNE def
EPA per play
5th+0.1510th-0.03
Pass EPA
8th+0.217th+0.00
Run EPA
4th+0.0529th+0.00
Success rate
5th49%8th41%
Explosive plays
6th10%12th8%
Points per drive
4th2.979th1.83
Red zone TD
2nd82%14th58%
Third downs
4th52%17th38%
Sacks
21st7%19th6%
Turnovers
10th6%15th12%

Jaguars: 32.2 sec a snap (19th fastest) · passes 3% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Patriots

  • QBDrake Maye+0.03 EPA a dropback · CPOE +2.4 · 132 dropbacks · 19th of 32
  • RBRhamondre Stevenson-0.05 EPA a carry · 3.8 yds · 42 carries · 22nd in EPA
  • WRMack Hollins+0.72 EPA a target · 76% caught · 17 targets · 16th in EPA

Jaguars

  • QBTrevor Lawrence+0.27 EPA a dropback · CPOE +9.2 · 113 dropbacks · 6th of 32
  • RBBhayshul Tuten+0.07 EPA a carry · 4.9 yds · 50 carries · 7th in EPA
  • WRJakobi Meyers+1.21 EPA a target · 86% caught · 14 targets · 2nd in EPA

Recent Form

Patriots

  • W20-3vs Steelers+11
  • L10-13at Seahawks—

Jaguars

  • L13-20at Broncos−8
  • W34-10vs Browns—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.