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Patriots at Bears

Week 7 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Patriots4-2 going in
24–30Final
Bears4-2 going in

Thu, Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video

Soldier Field · Chicago, IL

The Call How this works

GordStats had Patriots by 0.5✗, the book had Bears by 3: a lean to Patriots +3✗.

On the total, GordStats said 44 to the book's 50.5: a lean to the Under✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

NE 52%win chanceCHI 48%
GordStatsNE by 0.552% to win · NE 23–CHI 21
BookCHI -3O/U 50.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Patriots' pass rush (6th) meets Bears' pass protection (20th).
  • Bears' pass rush (2nd) meets Patriots' pass protection (14th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Patriots Offense vs Bears Defense

NE offCHI def
EPA per play
9th+0.079th-0.05
Pass EPA
6th+0.224th-0.06
Run EPA
24th-0.1518th-0.07
Success rate
10th47%4th41%
Explosive plays
13th8%17th9%
Points per drive
14th2.1312th1.99
Red zone TD
23rd52%22nd65%
Third downs
12th41%1st26%
Sacks
14th6%2nd8%
Turnovers
31st18%20th10%

Patriots: 32.6 sec a snap (22nd fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

Bears Offense vs Patriots Defense

CHI offNE def
EPA per play
8th+0.0911th-0.03
Pass EPA
8th+0.2017th+0.08
Run EPA
18th-0.1010th-0.14
Success rate
7th48%9th42%
Explosive plays
5th10%13th8%
Points per drive
8th2.3411th1.98
Red zone TD
21st53%12th54%
Third downs
6th44%11th39%
Sacks
20th6%6th8%
Turnovers
25th14%19th10%

Bears: 31.5 sec a snap (12th fastest) · passes 3% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Patriots

  • QBDrake Maye+0.27 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.3 · 254 dropbacks · 6th of 32
  • RBRhamondre Stevenson-0.03 EPA a carry · 4.0 yds · 91 carries · 16th in EPA
  • WRDeMario Douglas+0.63 EPA a target · 73% caught · 33 targets · 14th in EPA
  • TEHunter Henry+0.58 EPA a target · 85% caught · 33 targets · 15th in EPA

Bears

  • QBCaleb Williams+0.35 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.9 · 139 dropbacks · 1st of 32
  • RBD'Andre Swift-0.11 EPA a carry · 3.8 yds · 103 carries · 24th in EPA
  • WRRome Odunze+0.73 EPA a target · 68% caught · 31 targets · 7th in EPA
  • WRKalif Raymond+0.48 EPA a target · 86% caught · 28 targets · 28th in EPA

Recent Form

Patriots

  • W26–19vs Jets−3
  • W45–17vs Raiders+21
  • W29–26at Bills+7
  • L6–35at Jaguars−28

Bears

  • W31–23at Falcons+7
  • L7–31at Packers−26
  • W23–12vs Jets+1
  • W27–7vs Eagles+19

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.