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Patriots at Bills

Week 4 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 12 · 5:44 AM ET

Patriots1-2 going in
29–26Final
Bills3-0 going in

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY

The Call How this works

GordStats had Bills by 4.3✗, the book by 7 — 2.7 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

NE 37%win chanceBUF 63%
GordStatsBUF by 4.363% to win · NE 21–BUF 26
BookBUF -7O/U 49.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Patriots' offense (10th) meets Bills' defense (27th).
  • Bills' run game (3rd) meets Patriots' run defense (20th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense

NE offBUF def
EPA per play
10th+0.0727th+0.09
Pass EPA
9th+0.1825th+0.15
Run EPA
22nd-0.1425th-0.03
Success rate
9th47%28th49%
Explosive plays
13th9%23rd9%
Points per drive
18th1.9826th2.55
Red zone TD
22nd53%23rd69%
Third downs
17th39%19th42%
Sacks
17th6%17th6%
Turnovers
32nd21%15th12%

Patriots: 31.2 sec a snap (11th fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense

BUF offNE def
EPA per play
2nd+0.199th-0.05
Pass EPA
2nd+0.279th+0.00
Run EPA
3rd+0.0820th-0.06
Success rate
7th48%8th40%
Explosive plays
1st14%7th7%
Points per drive
4th3.024th1.77
Red zone TD
7th69%18th60%
Third downs
1st55%13th38%
Sacks
19th7%15th6%
Turnovers
25th17%19th11%

Bills: 31.1 sec a snap (9th fastest) · passes 3% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Patriots

  • QBDrake Maye+0.18 EPA a dropback · CPOE +6.6 · 164 dropbacks · 12th of 31
  • RBRhamondre Stevenson-0.01 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 53 carries · 17th in EPA
  • WRDeMario Douglas+0.54 EPA a target · 63% caught · 19 targets · 27th in EPA
  • WRMack Hollins+0.72 EPA a target · 76% caught · 17 targets · 14th in EPA

Bills

  • QBJosh Allen+0.32 EPA a dropback · CPOE +5.1 · 133 dropbacks · 3rd of 31
  • RBJames Cook+0.16 EPA a carry · 6.3 yds · 60 carries · 2nd in EPA
  • TEDalton Kincaid+0.62 EPA a target · 79% caught · 19 targets · 20th in EPA
  • WRKeon Coleman+1.17 EPA a target · 86% caught · 14 targets · 2nd in EPA

Recent Form

Patriots

  • L6-35at Jaguars−28
  • W20-3vs Steelers+11
  • L10-13at Seahawks—

Bills

  • W24-16vs Chargers−1
  • W41-31vs Lions+6
  • W36-31at Texans—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.