Buffalo Bills
Updated Wed, Sep 30 · 7:15 PM ET
3–0 · 3rd of 32
Rated +4.9 points vs an average team · AFC East
Projected record
| Source | W–L | How |
|---|---|---|
| GordStats | 11.9–5.1 | Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left |
| ESPN FPI | 12.2–4.8 | ESPN's simulation of the full schedule |
Advanced
Offense EPA/play+0.222nd of 32
Defense EPA/play+0.0726th of 32
Success rate49.7%6th of 32
Explosive plays13.6%1st of 32
3rd down56.2%3rd of 32
Red zone TD75.0%6th of 32
Giveaway rate16.1%24th of 32
Takeaway rate9.7%18th of 32
EPA is opponent-adjusted through Week 3, garbage time out; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.
Schedule
| Opponent | Date | Result | Expected | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 at Texans | 13 Sep | W 36–31 | +1.5 | — |
2 vs Lions | 17 Sep | W 41–31 | +3.9 | — |
3 vs Chargers | 27 Sep | W 24–16 | +8.6 | — |
4 vs Patriots | 4 Oct | proj 26–21 | +4.3 | 63% |
5 at Rams | 12 Oct | proj 25–26 | -1.1 | 47% |
6 at Raiders | 18 Oct | proj 28–22 | +6.0 | 68% |
8 vs Ravens | 1 Nov | proj 28–24 | +4.0 | 62% |
9 at Vikings | 9 Nov | proj 23–23 | +0.2 | 50% |
10 at Jets | 15 Nov | proj 29–21 | +8.3 | 74% |
11 vs Dolphins | 22 Nov | proj 30–19 | +11.6 | 81% |
12 vs Chiefs | 26 Nov | proj 26–22 | +3.6 | 61% |
| 13at Patriots | 6 Dec | proj 24–23 | +0.8 | 53% |
14 at Packers | 13 Dec | proj 28–23 | +4.4 | 63% |
15 vs Bears | 19 Dec | proj 28–24 | +3.8 | 61% |
16 at Broncos | 25 Dec | proj 25–24 | +1.2 | 54% |
| 17at Dolphins | 3 Jan | proj 29–20 | +8.2 | 73% |
| 18vs Jets | 10 Jan | proj 31–19 | +11.8 | 82% |
Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff. Win is the chance of winning a game still to play. How it has done: predictions.