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Bills at Jets

Week 10 preview

Updated Sat, Nov 14 · 5:48 PM ET

Bills7-1
at
Jets2-7

Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ

50° Intermittent clouds

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Bills by 11, the book by 7.5: a lean to Bills -7.5.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

BUF 80%win chanceNYJ 20%
GordStatsBUF by 1180% to win · BUF 30–NYJ 20
DraftKingsBUF -7.5O/U 50.5
ESPNBUF 83%win chance
Watch score52

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bills' passing game (4th) meets Jets' pass defense (29th).
  • Bills' third-down defense (13th) meets Jets' third-down offense (26th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Bills Offense vs Jets Defense

BUF offNYJ def
EPA per play
3rd+0.1421st+0.04
Pass EPA
4th+0.2229th+0.19
Run EPA
4th+0.019th-0.15
Success rate
6th47%28th47%
Explosive plays
1st12%15th8%
Points per drive
1st3.0126th2.40
Red zone TD
9th65%26th67%
Third downs
6th45%23rd43%
Sacks
19th6%11th7%
Turnovers
25th14%22nd10%

Bills: 31.2 sec a snap (9th fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

Jets Offense vs Bills Defense

NYJ offBUF def
EPA per play
19th-0.0118th+0.03
Pass EPA
17th+0.0813th+0.05
Run EPA
19th-0.1223rd-0.05
Success rate
11th45%23rd45%
Explosive plays
9th9%17th8%
Points per drive
19th2.0017th2.17
Red zone TD
31st41%19th63%
Third downs
26th36%13th39%
Sacks
28th9%21st5%
Turnovers
7th8%10th14%

Jets: 33.7 sec a snap (28th fastest) · passes 3% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Bills

  • QBJosh Allen+0.27 EPA a dropback · CPOE +2.9 · 261 dropbacks · 4th of 31
  • RBJames Cook+0.03 EPA a carry · 4.9 yds · 154 carries · 7th of 38
  • WRKhalil Shakir+0.46 EPA a target · 72% caught · 40 targets · 23rd in EPA
  • TEDalton Kincaid+0.42 EPA a target · 80% caught · 35 targets · 30th in EPA

Jets

  • QBGeno Smith+0.08 EPA a dropback · CPOE +4.8 · 283 dropbacks · 15th of 31
  • RBBraelon Allen-0.01 EPA a carry · 5.1 yds · 114 carries · 12th of 38
  • WRGarrett Wilson+0.42 EPA a target · 69% caught · 61 targets · 32nd in EPA
  • WRAdonai Mitchell+0.56 EPA a target · 53% caught · 30 targets · 16th in EPA

Recent Form

Bills

  • W23–6at Vikings+16
  • W36–10vs Ravens+22
  • W33–30at Raiders−5
  • W37–34at Rams+4

Jets

  • L12–35at Chiefs−15
  • L33–38vs Raiders−6
  • L25–28vs Dolphins−5
  • L19–26at Patriots+3

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.