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Chargers at Bills

Week 3 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 5 · 9:46 PM ET

Chargers0-2 going in
16–24Final
Bills2-0 going in

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY

The Call How this works

GordStats had Bills by 8.6✓, the book by 7 — they agree, no lean.

LAC 26%win chanceBUF 74%
GordStatsBUF by 8.674% to win · LAC 20–BUF 28
BookBUF -7O/U 50.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bills' big-play offense (1st) meets Chargers' big-play defense (25th).
  • Bills' takeaway defense (14th) meets Chargers' ball security (28th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Chargers Offense vs Bills Defense

LAC offBUF def
EPA per play
31st-0.1729th+0.11
Pass EPA
28th-0.1025th+0.15
Run EPA
29th-0.2626th-0.03
Success rate
24th41%27th49%
Explosive plays
18th7%23rd9%
Points per drive
30th1.4326th2.55
Red zone TD
15th58%24th69%
Third downs
23rd35%20th42%
Sacks
26th8%17th6%
Turnovers
28th19%14th12%

Chargers: 31.7 sec a snap (14th fastest) · passes 9% less than expected

Bills Offense vs Chargers Defense

BUF offLAC def
EPA per play
2nd+0.1913th-0.02
Pass EPA
3rd+0.2721st+0.09
Run EPA
3rd+0.0819th-0.08
Success rate
8th48%18th44%
Explosive plays
1st14%25th9%
Points per drive
3rd3.0221st2.26
Red zone TD
10th69%15th60%
Third downs
2nd55%16th38%
Sacks
18th7%7th8%
Turnovers
25th17%6th15%

Bills: 31.1 sec a snap (8th fastest) · passes 3% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Chargers

  • QBJustin Herbert-0.15 EPA a dropback · CPOE -4.7 · 123 dropbacks · 27th of 32
  • WRLadd McConkey+0.60 EPA a target · 67% caught · 15 targets · 23rd in EPA

Bills

  • QBJosh Allen+0.32 EPA a dropback · CPOE +5.1 · 133 dropbacks · 4th of 32
  • RBJames Cook+0.16 EPA a carry · 6.3 yds · 60 carries · 2nd in EPA
  • TEDalton Kincaid+0.62 EPA a target · 79% caught · 19 targets · 21st in EPA
  • WRKeon Coleman+1.17 EPA a target · 86% caught · 14 targets · 3rd in EPA

Recent Form

Chargers

  • L14-26vs Raiders−18
  • L14-26vs Cardinals—

Bills

  • W41-31vs Lions+6
  • W36-31at Texans—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.