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Dolphins at Bills

Week 11 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Dolphins1-7
at
Bills7-1

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Bills by 16, the book by 16.5 — 0.5 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

MIA 11%win chanceBUF 89%
GordStatsBUF by 1689% to win · MIA 16–BUF 32
DraftKingsBUF -16.5O/U 46.5
Assumes outMalik WillisDolphins quarterback
ESPNBUF 96%win chance
Watch score49

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bills' scoring offense (1st) meets Dolphins' scoring defense (32nd).
  • Bills' takeaway defense (10th) meets Dolphins' ball security (22nd).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense

MIA offBUF def
EPA per play
26th-0.0918th+0.03
Pass EPA
24th-0.0313th+0.05
Run EPA
23rd-0.1523rd-0.05
Success rate
29th38%23rd45%
Explosive plays
24th7%17th8%
Points per drive
28th1.7017th2.17
Red zone TD
28th48%19th63%
Third downs
10th42%13th39%
Sacks
30th9%21st5%
Turnovers
22nd14%10th14%

Dolphins: 33.4 sec a snap (25th fastest) · passes 8% less than expected

Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense

BUF offMIA def
EPA per play
3rd+0.1432nd+0.15
Pass EPA
4th+0.2232nd+0.30
Run EPA
4th+0.0130th+0.01
Success rate
6th47%32nd52%
Explosive plays
1st12%26th9%
Points per drive
1st3.0132nd2.74
Red zone TD
9th65%15th59%
Third downs
6th45%30th49%
Sacks
19th6%28th5%
Turnovers
25th14%24th10%

Bills: 31.2 sec a snap (9th fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Dolphins

  • RBOllie Gordon II-0.06 EPA a carry · 4.3 yds · 99 carries · 18th of 38

Bills

  • QBJosh Allen+0.27 EPA a dropback · CPOE +2.9 · 261 dropbacks · 4th of 31
  • RBJames Cook+0.03 EPA a carry · 4.9 yds · 154 carries · 7th of 38
  • WRKhalil Shakir+0.46 EPA a target · 72% caught · 40 targets · 23rd in EPA
  • TEDalton Kincaid+0.42 EPA a target · 80% caught · 35 targets · 30th in EPA

Recent Form

Dolphins

  • L9–19vs Lions−4
  • L19–24vs Patriots+2
  • W28–25at Jets+5
  • L24–31vs Bengals−4

Bills

  • W23–6at Vikings+16
  • W36–10vs Ravens+22
  • W33–30at Raiders−5
  • W37–34at Rams+4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.