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Bills at Raiders

Week 6 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 26 · 11:39 AM ET

Bills4-1 going in
33–30Final
Raiders3-2 going in

Sun, Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET · CBS

Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Bills by 7.5✓, the book by 5.5 — 2 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

BUF 72%win chanceLV 28%
GordStatsBUF by 7.572% to win · BUF 30–LV 22
BookBUF -5.5O/U 53.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bills' passing game (1st) meets Raiders' pass defense (29th).
  • Raiders' scoring offense (7th) meets Bills' scoring defense (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Bills Offense vs Raiders Defense

BUF offLV def
EPA per play
1st+0.2127th+0.09
Pass EPA
1st+0.3329th+0.25
Run EPA
4th+0.0310th-0.12
Success rate
4th49%30th49%
Explosive plays
1st14%26th10%
Points per drive
1st3.2325th2.56
Red zone TD
8th67%28th73%
Third downs
3rd49%23rd44%
Sacks
17th6%15th6%
Turnovers
27th15%3rd16%

Bills: 31.3 sec a snap (10th fastest) · passes 4% less than expected

Raiders Offense vs Bills Defense

LV offBUF def
EPA per play
15th+0.0129th+0.12
Pass EPA
10th+0.1527th+0.21
Run EPA
29th-0.2325th-0.06
Success rate
17th43%29th48%
Explosive plays
23rd7%21st9%
Points per drive
7th2.4130th2.76
Red zone TD
26th48%26th69%
Third downs
16th40%27th46%
Sacks
4th4%26th4%
Turnovers
12th8%20th10%

Raiders: 32.5 sec a snap (21st fastest) · passes 0% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Bills

  • QBJosh Allen+0.36 EPA a dropback · CPOE +4.7 · 195 dropbacks · 1st of 34
  • RBJames Cook+0.07 EPA a carry · 5.5 yds · 105 carries · 8th in EPA
  • WRKeon Coleman+1.09 EPA a target · 81% caught · 21 targets · 1st in EPA

Raiders

  • QBKirk Cousins+0.12 EPA a dropback · CPOE -3.3 · 242 dropbacks · 13th of 34
  • RBAshton Jeanty-0.27 EPA a carry · 3.2 yds · 92 carries · 37th in EPA

Recent Form

Bills

  • W37–34at Rams+4
  • L26–29vs Patriots−7
  • W24–16vs Chargers−1
  • W41–31vs Lions+6

Raiders

  • L17–45at Patriots−21
  • L27–30vs Chiefs+1
  • W35–27at Saints+12
  • W26–14at Chargers+18

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.