Follow teams and keep your fantasy leagues on every device.

Sign inWhat you get

Bills at Vikings

Week 9 preview

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Bills6-1
at
Vikings6-1

Mon, Nov 9 · 8:15 PM ET · ESPN, ABC

U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Bills by 1.1, the book by 2.5 — 1.4 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

BUF 53%win chanceMIN 47%
GordStatsBUF by 1.153% to win · BUF 23–MIN 22
DraftKingsBUF -2.5O/U 46.5
ESPNBUF 61%win chance
Watch score84Toss-up · Winning teams

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Vikings' takeaway defense (6th) meets Bills' ball security (26th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Bills Offense vs Vikings Defense

BUF offMIN def
EPA per play
3rd+0.161st-0.19
Pass EPA
2nd+0.261st-0.20
Run EPA
5th+0.019th-0.16
Success rate
5th48%1st36%
Explosive plays
1st13%14th8%
Points per drive
1st3.151st1.18
Red zone TD
7th68%1st25%
Third downs
5th45%3rd30%
Sacks
11th5%1st11%
Turnovers
26th15%6th15%

Bills: 30.8 sec a snap (6th fastest) · passes 4% less than expected

Vikings Offense vs Bills Defense

MIN offBUF def
EPA per play
30th-0.1025th+0.07
Pass EPA
26th-0.0423rd+0.13
Run EPA
28th-0.1924th-0.05
Success rate
31st38%28th47%
Explosive plays
17th8%16th9%
Points per drive
26th1.8225th2.45
Red zone TD
22nd53%23rd66%
Third downs
25th38%22nd42%
Sacks
30th9%25th5%
Turnovers
6th7%13th12%

Vikings: 32.9 sec a snap (23rd fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Bills

  • QBJosh Allen+0.31 EPA a dropback · CPOE +2.7 · 225 dropbacks · 3rd of 32
  • RBJames Cook+0.07 EPA a carry · 5.2 yds · 124 carries · 5th in EPA
  • WRKeon Coleman+0.75 EPA a target · 75% caught · 24 targets · 5th in EPA

Vikings

  • QBKyler Murray+0.00 EPA a dropback · CPOE +1.6 · 182 dropbacks · 21st of 32
  • RBAaron Jones-0.18 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 102 carries · 31st in EPA
  • WRJustin Jefferson+0.46 EPA a target · 69% caught · 39 targets · 29th in EPA
  • TET.J. Hockenson+0.67 EPA a target · 84% caught · 37 targets · 9th in EPA

Recent Form

Bills

  • W36–10vs Ravens+22
  • W33–30at Raiders−5
  • W37–34at Rams+4
  • L26–29vs Patriots−7

Vikings

  • L15–19at Lions−4
  • W16–10vs Colts0
  • W23–13at Saints+5
  • W15–10vs Dolphins−5

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.