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Bills at Rams

Week 5 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 19 · 5:37 AM ET

Bills3-1 going in
37–34Final/OT
Rams2-2 going in

Mon, Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET · ESPN, ABC

SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA

The Call How this works

GordStats had Rams by 1.1✗, the book by 3.5 — 2.4 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 52 to the book's 55.5: a lean to the Under✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

BUF 47%win chanceLAR 53%
GordStatsLAR by 1.153% to win · BUF 25–LAR 27
BookLAR -3.5O/U 55.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Rams' pass protection (5th) meets Bills' pass rush (26th).
  • Bills' passing game (2nd) meets Rams' pass defense (21st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Bills Offense vs Rams Defense

BUF offLAR def
EPA per play
2nd+0.2115th-0.01
Pass EPA
2nd+0.3321st+0.10
Run EPA
3rd+0.0316th-0.11
Success rate
4th49%24th45%
Explosive plays
1st14%11th7%
Points per drive
1st3.2318th2.11
Red zone TD
8th67%7th50%
Third downs
3rd49%7th33%
Sacks
18th6%27th4%
Turnovers
22nd15%24th10%

Bills: 31.3 sec a snap (10th fastest) · passes 4% less than expected

Rams Offense vs Bills Defense

LAR offBUF def
EPA per play
13th+0.0529th+0.12
Pass EPA
16th+0.1127th+0.21
Run EPA
14th-0.0722nd-0.06
Success rate
8th47%29th48%
Explosive plays
11th9%20th9%
Points per drive
15th2.1129th2.76
Red zone TD
13th62%26th69%
Third downs
7th45%27th46%
Sacks
5th4%26th4%
Turnovers
21st14%21st10%

Rams: 30.7 sec a snap (7th fastest) · passes 7% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Bills

  • QBJosh Allen+0.36 EPA a dropback · CPOE +4.7 · 195 dropbacks · 2nd of 33
  • RBJames Cook+0.07 EPA a carry · 5.5 yds · 105 carries · 6th in EPA
  • WRKeon Coleman+1.09 EPA a target · 81% caught · 21 targets · 2nd in EPA

Rams

  • QBMatthew Stafford+0.12 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.3 · 245 dropbacks · 14th of 33
  • RBKyren Williams+0.03 EPA a carry · 4.9 yds · 73 carries · 12th in EPA
  • WRDavante Adams+0.48 EPA a target · 61% caught · 46 targets · 30th in EPA
  • TETyler Higbee+0.42 EPA a target · 81% caught · 27 targets · 38th in EPA

Recent Form

Bills

  • L26-29vs Patriots−7
  • W24-16vs Chargers−1
  • W41-31vs Lions+6
  • W36-31at Texans—

Rams

  • W24-20at Eagles+3
  • L26-30at Broncos−5
  • W28-6vs Giants+15
  • L7-27vs 49ers—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.