Follow teams and keep your fantasy leagues on every device.

Sign inWhat you get

Packers at Patriots

Week 9 preview

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Packers5-3
at
Patriots5-3

Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET · Fox

Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Patriots by 3.5, the book by 3 — 0.5 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats says 42 to the book's 47.5: a lean to the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

GB 39%win chanceNE 61%
GordStatsNE by 3.561% to win · GB 19–NE 23
DraftKingsNE -3O/U 47.5
ESPNNE 57%win chance
Watch score80Toss-up · Winning teams

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Packers' takeaway defense (1st) meets Patriots' ball security (31st).
  • Patriots' run defense (10th) meets Packers' run game (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Packers Offense vs Patriots Defense

GB offNE def
EPA per play
14th+0.0311th-0.03
Pass EPA
11th+0.1617th+0.08
Run EPA
30th-0.2610th-0.14
Success rate
25th41%9th42%
Explosive plays
11th8%13th8%
Points per drive
19th2.0111th1.98
Red zone TD
27th52%12th54%
Third downs
19th39%11th39%
Sacks
7th4%6th8%
Turnovers
17th12%19th10%

Packers: 31.7 sec a snap (13th fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

Patriots Offense vs Packers Defense

NE offGB def
EPA per play
9th+0.076th-0.06
Pass EPA
6th+0.225th-0.04
Run EPA
24th-0.1513th-0.11
Success rate
10th47%17th44%
Explosive plays
13th8%3rd5%
Points per drive
14th2.137th1.86
Red zone TD
23rd52%14th60%
Third downs
12th41%21st42%
Sacks
14th6%12th7%
Turnovers
31st18%1st17%

Patriots: 32.6 sec a snap (22nd fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Packers

  • QBJordan Love+0.16 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.8 · 278 dropbacks · 11th of 32
  • RBMarShawn Lloyd-0.37 EPA a carry · 2.6 yds · 53 carries · 40th in EPA
  • WRChristian Watson+0.41 EPA a target · 59% caught · 58 targets · 36th in EPA
  • TETucker Kraft+0.50 EPA a target · 73% caught · 44 targets · 26th in EPA

Patriots

  • QBDrake Maye+0.27 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.3 · 254 dropbacks · 6th of 32
  • RBRhamondre Stevenson-0.03 EPA a carry · 4.0 yds · 91 carries · 16th in EPA
  • WRDeMario Douglas+0.63 EPA a target · 73% caught · 33 targets · 14th in EPA
  • TEHunter Henry+0.58 EPA a target · 85% caught · 33 targets · 15th in EPA

Recent Form

Packers

  • W27–19vs Panthers+3
  • L17–20at Lions0
  • W23–13vs Cowboys+6
  • W31–7vs Bears+26

Patriots

  • W24–19at Dolphins−2
  • L24–30at Bears−7
  • W26–19vs Jets−3
  • W45–17vs Raiders+21

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.