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AFC West Race

2026 season · 10,000 simulations

Updated Thu, Nov 12 · 11:46 PM ET

← Every team's playoff odds

The Race iHow this works

Team	Division	Wild Card	Playoffs
Broncos7-2 · 2-1 div	58%	34%	92%
Chiefs6-2 · 3-1 div	39%	48%	87%
Raiders4-5 · 1-1 div	2%	9%	11%

Under 1%: Chargers.

Games That Decide It iHow this works

The games left whose results move the race most, and each contender's chance either way.

1. 1Broncos at RaidersSun, Dec 20 · DEN 69%

   Division Chance	If DEN Wins	If LV Wins
   Broncos	68%	37%
   Chiefs	32%	57%
   Raiders	<1%	7%

2. 2Broncos at SteelersFri, Nov 27 · DEN 52%

   Division Chance	If DEN Wins	If PIT Wins
   Broncos	71%	45%
   Chiefs	28%	51%
   Raiders	1%	3%

3. 3Chiefs at BengalsSun, Dec 13 · CIN 52%

   Division Chance	If KC Wins	If CIN Wins
   Chiefs	52%	27%
   Broncos	46%	70%
   Raiders	1%	3%

4. 449ers at ChiefsSun, Dec 27 · SF 51%

   Division Chance	If SF Wins	If KC Wins
   Chiefs	27%	52%
   Broncos	70%	47%
   Raiders	3%	1%

5. 5Patriots at ChiefsMon, Dec 21 · KC 55%

   Division Chance	If NE Wins	If KC Wins
   Chiefs	26%	50%
   Broncos	71%	48%
   Raiders	3%	1%

6. 6Broncos at PatriotsSun, Jan 3 · NE 56%

   Division Chance	If DEN Wins	If NE Wins
   Broncos	70%	47%
   Chiefs	28%	49%
   Raiders	1%	3%