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Buccaneers at Lions

Week 11 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Buccaneers3-6
at
Lions6-2

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Ford Field · Detroit, MI

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Lions by 3.1, the book by 3.5 — they agree, no lean.

TB 41%win chanceDET 59%
GordStatsDET by 3.159% to win · TB 22–DET 26
DraftKingsDET -3.5O/U 47.5
ESPNDET 50%win chance
Watch score76Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Lions' pass rush (7th) meets Buccaneers' pass protection (29th).
  • Buccaneers' third-down defense (8th) meets Lions' third-down offense (21st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense

TB offDET def
EPA per play
30th-0.1129th+0.10
Pass EPA
31st-0.1928th+0.18
Run EPA
9th-0.0212th-0.13
Success rate
28th40%22nd45%
Explosive plays
17th8%29th10%
Points per drive
25th1.8121st2.33
Red zone TD
27th50%24th67%
Third downs
23rd36%26th45%
Sacks
29th9%7th8%
Turnovers
23rd14%23rd10%

Buccaneers: 34.1 sec a snap (30th fastest) · passes 12% less than expected

Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense

DET offTB def
EPA per play
7th+0.081st-0.20
Pass EPA
7th+0.202nd-0.18
Run EPA
14th-0.073rd-0.19
Success rate
3rd49%4th40%
Explosive plays
3rd10%4th6%
Points per drive
5th2.744th1.60
Red zone TD
14th60%7th46%
Third downs
21st37%8th35%
Sacks
20th6%25th5%
Turnovers
2nd6%1st19%

Lions: 31.8 sec a snap (16th fastest) · passes 6% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Buccaneers

  • QBBaker Mayfield-0.25 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.9 · 169 dropbacks · 31st of 31
  • RBBucky Irving+0.03 EPA a carry · 5.0 yds · 160 carries · 8th of 38

Lions

  • QBJared Goff+0.19 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.2 · 272 dropbacks · 9th of 31
  • RBJahmyr Gibbs-0.01 EPA a carry · 4.9 yds · 163 carries · 11th of 38
  • WRJameson Williams+0.55 EPA a target · 61% caught · 44 targets · 17th in EPA
  • TESam LaPorta+0.59 EPA a target · 67% caught · 43 targets · 13th in EPA

Recent Form

Buccaneers

  • L24–27at Bears0
  • W16–0vs Falcons+14
  • W43–13at Panthers+32
  • L19–26vs Steelers−4

Lions

  • W19–9at Dolphins+4
  • W19–15vs Vikings+4
  • W20–17vs Packers0
  • W45–21at Cardinals+20

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.