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What the Texans Need
2026 NFL playoffs · 10,000 simulations
Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 6:27 PM ET
If It Wins Out, or Doesn't How this works
Win out
>99%
3% likely
One more loss
99%
10% likely
Two or more
27%
86% likely
Win out and it is in: in the field in >99% of the 347 runs where it won every game left.
Games Left
| Game | Win | If W | If L | Only L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| at BrownsSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | 67% | 48% | 14% | – |
| vs ColtsThu, Nov 19 | 69% | 46% | 17% | – |
| vs RavensSun, Nov 29 | 76% | 48% | 15% | – |
| at SteelersSun, Dec 6 | 53% | 54% | 18% | 96% |
| at CommandersSun, Dec 13 | 63% | 47% | 20% | – |
| vs JaguarsSun, Dec 20 | 39% | 58% | 23% | 99% |
| at EaglesThu, Dec 24 | 74% | 47% | 20% | – |
| at PackersMon, Jan 4 | 48% | 51% | 23% | >99% |
| vs TitansSun, Jan 10 | 78% | 43% | 14% | – |
The loss that would hurt most: at Steelers, 96% as its only one.
Division Title
| Finish | Chance | Playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Wins the AFC South | 8% | >99% |
| Does not win it | 92% | 31% |
Who to Root For
This Week
- Bengals over Steelers38% if CIN wins, 35% if PIT does · CIN 58% to win · Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 PM ET+4pts
- Lions over Patriots39% if DET wins, 35% if NE does · DET 53% to win · Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET+4pts
- Chargers over Ravens39% if LAC wins, 35% if BAL does · LAC 51% to win · Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET+4pts
Later This Season
- Panthers over Steelers41% if CAR wins, 34% if PIT does · CAR 41% to win · Sun, Dec 27+7pts
- Jets over Patriots42% if NYJ wins, 35% if NE does · NYJ 29% to win · Sun, Dec 27+7pts
- Dolphins over Patriots42% if MIA wins, 35% if NE does · MIA 24% to win · Sun, Jan 10+7pts
Road to the Title
| Round | Chance |
|---|---|
| Makes the playoffs | 37% |
| Reaches the divisional round | 19% |
| Reaches the conference title game | 9% |
| Reaches the Super Bowl | 5% |
| Wins the Super Bowl | 2% |