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Chargers at Ravens

Week 10 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 5:37 PM ET

Chargers0-8
at
Ravens4-5

Mon, Nov 16 · 8:15 PM ET · ESPN

M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD

41° Clear

The Call How this works

GordStats calls it a coin flip, the book has Ravens by 4.5: a lean to Chargers +4.5.

On the total, GordStats says 44 to the book's 38.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

LAC 51%win chanceBAL 49%
GordStatsCoin flip51% to win · LAC 23–BAL 21
DraftKingsBAL -4.5O/U 38.5
Assumes outLamar JacksonRavens quarterback
ESPNLAC 55%win chance
Watch score38Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Ravens' big-play defense (9th) meets Chargers' big-play offense (30th).
  • Ravens' run game (15th) meets Chargers' run defense (27th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Chargers Offense vs Ravens Defense

LAC offBAL def
EPA per play
32nd-0.2614th-0.01
Pass EPA
32nd-0.2216th+0.06
Run EPA
32nd-0.3216th-0.08
Success rate
32nd35%17th44%
Explosive plays
30th6%9th7%
Points per drive
32nd1.2724th2.36
Red zone TD
29th47%21st65%
Third downs
30th34%12th39%
Sacks
31st11%20th5%
Turnovers
31st19%26th9%

Chargers: 31.6 sec a snap (13th fastest) · passes 12% less than expected

Ravens Offense vs Chargers Defense

BAL offLAC def
EPA per play
18th-0.0113th-0.01
Pass EPA
19th+0.0515th+0.06
Run EPA
15th-0.0827th-0.04
Success rate
17th43%21st45%
Explosive plays
14th8%25th9%
Points per drive
21st1.9123rd2.36
Red zone TD
15th59%11th53%
Third downs
15th39%9th35%
Sacks
24th8%24th5%
Turnovers
13th10%14th12%

Ravens: 34.7 sec a snap (32nd fastest) · passes 6% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Chargers

  • QBJustin Herbert-0.24 EPA a dropback · CPOE -6.1 · 243 dropbacks · 30th of 31
  • RBOmarion Hampton-0.36 EPA a carry · 3.3 yds · 94 carries · 38th of 38

Ravens

  • RBDerrick Henry-0.13 EPA a carry · 3.9 yds · 154 carries · 27th of 38
  • WRZay Flowers+0.40 EPA a target · 69% caught · 61 targets · 35th in EPA
  • WRRashod Bateman+0.59 EPA a target · 66% caught · 29 targets · 12th in EPA

Recent Form

Chargers

  • L22–44vs Texans−18
  • L9–24at Rams−8
  • L6–22at Chiefs−10
  • L17–23vs Broncos−4

Ravens

  • L10–33vs Jaguars−13
  • L10–36at Bills−22
  • L13–35vs Bengals−21
  • L10–13at Browns−4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.