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Texans at Browns

Week 10 preview

Updated Sat, Nov 14 · 11:40 AM ET

Texans3-5
at
Browns5-4

Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH

46° Showers

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Texans by 5.9, the book by 4.5 — 1.4 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

HOU 67%win chanceCLE 33%
GordStatsHOU by 5.967% to win · HOU 24–CLE 18
DraftKingsHOU -4.5O/U 40.5
ESPNHOU 77%win chance
Watch score44

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Texans' pass rush (2nd) meets Browns' pass protection (32nd).
  • Texans' big-play offense (12th) meets Browns' big-play defense (32nd).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Texans Offense vs Browns Defense

HOU offCLE def
EPA per play
8th+0.0715th+0.00
Pass EPA
6th+0.208th-0.01
Run EPA
25th-0.1629th-0.01
Success rate
12th44%14th43%
Explosive plays
12th8%32nd11%
Points per drive
8th2.4612th2.00
Red zone TD
17th58%9th48%
Third downs
14th40%17th40%
Sacks
10th5%6th8%
Turnovers
1st5%15th11%

Texans: 31.2 sec a snap (10th fastest) · passes 2% more than expected

Browns Offense vs Texans Defense

CLE offHOU def
EPA per play
24th-0.0719th+0.03
Pass EPA
22nd+0.0121st+0.11
Run EPA
28th-0.2121st-0.08
Success rate
23rd42%8th42%
Explosive plays
27th7%28th10%
Points per drive
29th1.6419th2.23
Red zone TD
32nd39%25th67%
Third downs
29th34%14th39%
Sacks
32nd11%2nd9%
Turnovers
15th10%25th9%

Browns: 31.1 sec a snap (8th fastest) · passes 2% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Texans

  • QBC.J. Stroud+0.21 EPA a dropback · CPOE +1.4 · 277 dropbacks · 8th of 31
  • RBWoody Marks-0.14 EPA a carry · 3.7 yds · 86 carries · 28th of 38
  • WRNico Collins+0.67 EPA a target · 72% caught · 39 targets · 6th in EPA
  • WRKayshon Boutte+0.44 EPA a target · 72% caught · 25 targets · 28th in EPA

Browns

  • QBDeshaun Watson+0.00 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.7 · 275 dropbacks · 21st of 31
  • RBQuinshon Judkins-0.22 EPA a carry · 3.4 yds · 105 carries · 35th of 38

Recent Form

Texans

  • W44–22at Chargers+18
  • L21–27vs Giants−17
  • W34–31vs Jaguars+6
  • W26–3at Titans+17

Browns

  • L22–23at Saints+1
  • L6–27at Steelers−16
  • W27–24at Titans+1
  • W13–10vs Ravens+4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.