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Steelers at Bengals

Week 10 preview

Updated Sat, Nov 14 · 5:48 PM ET

Steelers6-2
at
Bengals6-2

Sun, Nov 15 · 8:20 PM ET · NBC

Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH

39° Partly cloudy

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Bengals by 2.5, the book by 3.5 — 1 point apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

PIT 42%win chanceCIN 58%
GordStatsCIN by 2.558% to win · PIT 23–CIN 25
DraftKingsCIN -3.5O/U 49.5
ESPNCIN 70%win chance
Watch score80Upset watch · Winning teams

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Steelers' run game (1st) meets Bengals' run defense (28th).
  • Steelers' takeaway defense (6th) meets Bengals' ball security (16th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense

PIT offCIN def
EPA per play
14th+0.0224th+0.07
Pass EPA
26th-0.0519th+0.09
Run EPA
1st+0.1528th-0.03
Success rate
16th44%24th45%
Explosive plays
11th9%21st9%
Points per drive
20th1.9714th2.07
Red zone TD
26th50%5th43%
Third downs
17th38%28th48%
Sacks
21st7%9th7%
Turnovers
10th9%4th15%

Steelers: 33.6 sec a snap (27th fastest) · passes 5% more than expected

Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense

CIN offPIT def
EPA per play
1st+0.2010th-0.02
Pass EPA
2nd+0.2910th+0.01
Run EPA
11th-0.0611th-0.14
Success rate
2nd53%15th43%
Explosive plays
10th9%19th9%
Points per drive
3rd2.895th1.63
Red zone TD
3rd71%2nd38%
Third downs
1st54%6th34%
Sacks
7th5%4th8%
Turnovers
16th11%6th14%

Bengals: 32.4 sec a snap (23rd fastest) · passes 12% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Steelers

  • QBAaron Rodgers-0.07 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.5 · 294 dropbacks · 28th of 31
  • RBJaylen Warren+0.15 EPA a carry · 6.0 yds · 108 carries · 2nd of 38

Bengals

  • QBJoe Burrow+0.32 EPA a dropback · CPOE +10.6 · 301 dropbacks · 2nd of 31
  • RBChase Brown-0.09 EPA a carry · 4.1 yds · 88 carries · 22nd of 38
  • WRJa'Marr Chase+0.60 EPA a target · 72% caught · 69 targets · 11th in EPA
  • WRTee Higgins+0.88 EPA a target · 72% caught · 64 targets · 2nd in EPA

Recent Form

Steelers

  • W27–6vs Browns+16
  • W16–10vs Saints+3
  • W26–19at Buccaneers+4
  • W34–22vs Colts+12

Bengals

  • W34–17vs Falcons+13
  • W43–36vs Titans−3
  • W35–13at Ravens+21
  • W31–24at Dolphins+4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.