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AFC South Race

2026 season · 10,000 simulations

Updated Thu, Nov 12 · 11:46 PM ET

← Every team's playoff odds

The Race iHow this works

Team	Division	Wild Card	Playoffs
Jaguars6-2 · 1-1 div	91%	6%	97%
Texans3-5 · 2-1 div	8%	28%	37%

Under 1%: Colts, Titans.

Games That Decide It iHow this works

The games left whose results move the race most, and each contender's chance either way.

1. 1Jaguars at TexansSun, Dec 20 · JAX 61%

   Division Chance	If JAX Wins	If HOU Wins
   Jaguars	99%	79%
   Texans	1%	20%

2. 2Jaguars at BearsSun, Dec 6 · JAX 60%

   Division Chance	If JAX Wins	If CHI Wins
   Jaguars	96%	84%
   Texans	4%	15%

3. 3Jaguars at CowboysSun, Dec 27 · JAX 71%

   Division Chance	If JAX Wins	If DAL Wins
   Jaguars	95%	82%
   Texans	5%	17%

4. 4Steelers at JaguarsMon, Dec 14 · JAX 71%

   Division Chance	If PIT Wins	If JAX Wins
   Jaguars	82%	95%
   Texans	17%	5%

5. 5Jaguars at ColtsSun, Jan 10 · JAX 63%

   Division Chance	If JAX Wins	If IND Wins
   Jaguars	95%	81%
   Texans	5%	17%
   Colts	<1%	1%

6. 6Jaguars at GiantsSun, Nov 22 · JAX 73%

   Division Chance	If JAX Wins	If NYG Wins
   Jaguars	94%	82%
   Texans	5%	17%