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What the Jaguars Need
2026 NFL playoffs · 10,000 simulations
Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 6:27 PM ET
If It Wins Out, or Doesn't How this works
Win out
>99%
11% likely
One more loss
>99%
22% likely
Two or more
96%
67% likely
Win out and it is in: in the field in >99% of the 1,128 runs where it won every game left.
Games Left
| Game | Win | If W | If L | Only L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| at TitansSun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | 84% | 99% | 91% | >99% |
| at GiantsSun, Nov 22 | 73% | 99% | 94% | >99% |
| vs TitansSun, Nov 29 | 87% | 99% | 89% | – |
| at BearsSun, Dec 6 | 60% | 99% | 95% | >99% |
| vs SteelersMon, Dec 14 | 71% | 99% | 93% | >99% |
| at TexansSun, Dec 20 | 61% | >99% | 94% | >99% |
| at CowboysSun, Dec 27 | 71% | 99% | 94% | >99% |
| vs CommandersSun, Jan 3 | 78% | 99% | 92% | >99% |
| at ColtsSun, Jan 10 | 63% | 99% | 93% | >99% |
Division Title
| Finish | Chance | Playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Wins the AFC South | 91% | >99% |
| Does not win it | 9% | 71% |
Who to Root For
Later This Season
- Eagles over Texans99% if PHI wins, 97% if HOU does · PHI 26% to win · Thu, Dec 24+2pts
- Packers over Texans98% if GB wins, 97% if HOU does · GB 52% to win · Mon, Jan 4+1pts
- Vikings over Patriots98% if MIN wins, 97% if NE does · MIN 35% to win · Thu, Dec 10+1pts
Road to the Title
| Round | Chance |
|---|---|
| Makes the playoffs | 97% |
| Reaches the divisional round | 71% |
| Reaches the conference title game | 43% |
| Reaches the Super Bowl | 25% |
| Wins the Super Bowl | 14% |